With the nation’s best defense and the third best scoring offense, the Michigan Wolverines have been plowing through the opposition all season long and will continue this trend against a mediocre Iowa Hawkeyes team coming off back-to-back losses in Week 11. The two teams that handed Iowa their latest losses fell to Michigan earlier this season by 46 combined points.
This matchup in Week 11 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Kinnick Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan -20
Iowa +20
Odds Analysis
The odds makers were a bit more bullish than bettors at Iowa’s chances to keep this game reasonably close, but we’ve since seen the spread jump by a nearly a field goal from 17.5 to 20.
The spread still seems a bit low as the Wolverines have beaten their opposition by more than 20-points in all but three games, two of which coming against the in-state rivals from Michigan State and form a fellow top-10 school in Wisconsin.
Odds makers have generally been very high on Michigan all year, particularly at home, but the Wolverines still have a 5-4 ATS mark. Iowa’s been a worse team for bettors as they’ve covered just three of their nine games and are just 1-2 ATS as underdogs and 1-4 ATS at home.
Even at 20, the spread is the lowest for Michigan since hosting Wisconsin on October 1.
Matchup to Watch
The Wolverines have the best defense in the sport and the Hawkeyes are ranked No. 106 in the passing game and are just marginally better on the ground. Don’t look for much offense out of Iowa which means it’s up to the defense to contain Michigan’s offense.
Iowa has only allowed 21.3 points per game which ranks No. 24 and while the team tends to rank worse according to yardage stats, they’ve been able to bend without breaking; at least some of the time.
The Hawkeyes’ defense certainly broke against Penn State giving up 41 and they broke against Purdue and Northwestern allowing 35 and 38 respectively, though they did beat Purdue.
Wisconsin and Minnesota were both held at bay; as was Rutgers. All three of those teams, however, lacked a prolific passing attack.
In the air, Michigan is an average team, but on the ground they’re averaging 251.7 yards per game.
The Wolverines will move the ball on the ground and that alone could be enough to cover the spread with seemingly countless options to carry the ball, but if Wilton Speight throws the ball well, this could really turn into a blowout.
Against Maryland, Speight completed nearly 80-percent of his passes for 362 yards and two scores. He’s got 2,053 yards and a 20:3 touchdown to interception ratio overall.
Key Stat
The advantage leans—often times heavily—in Michigan’s favor in nearly every significant statistical category.
The Wolverines are the superior offensive team and defensive team according to yards and points metrics. Michigan has the edge in time of possession and penalties. While Iowa boasts a turnover margin of six which ranks No. 23 in the nation, the Wolverines are even ahead of them there at nine.
Perhaps the most telling stat, however, is success on third down. While Iowa can hang close with Michigan in certain areas, the ability to extend drives isn’t one of them. The Wolverines are No. 14 in college football with a .482 conversion rate. Iowa is in the bottom quarter of the sport at No. 104 with a .354 rate.
When taking the flip side of this, Michigan has been the best at preventing the opposition from converting its third down opportunities. Against the Wolverines, opponents are converting at a rate of .190. That is just ridiculous. Iowa is one of the better teams in the league in this area and they’re still allowing a conversion rate of .362.
Free ATS Pick
Iowa’s offense has been stifled the last two weeks facing talented defenses in Wisconsin and Penn State, both of whom fall short of matching the Wolverine’s defensive proficiency.
The loss to the Nittany Lions was most recent and this is the same team that Michigan completely dismantled earlier in the year. While Penn State’s turned their season around over the last month, it’s still telling as Iowa cannot move the ball on the ground cannot get much going in the air, save for an occasional big play. That’s hardly enough against the nation’s best defense.
Look for another single digit output for Iowa—much as they had against Wisconsin. Should that occur, it’ll be the sixth time a team’s failed to reach double-digit points against Michigan.
As for the Wolverine’s offense, they’re averaging 48-points per game and even being a bit more conservative, they’ve scored at least 32-points in every game this season against a team other than Wisconsin. Even if they just match that output and hold the Hawkeyes below 10-points they cover with ease. Look for a blow out in front of a disappointed Iowa fan base on Saturday.
College Football Odds: Michigan 42, Iowa 9
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