The Nebraska Cornhuskers have just two losses this season, but they’ve come in successive weeks as the Huskers’ mistakes are catching up to them. Nebraska will look to turn their season around with a return home to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Week 11. Minnesota isn’t a ranked team, but the Gophers won’t be a picnic for Nebraska. They’ve won four straight and two of the last three head-to-head against the Huskers.
This contest in Week 11 of the regular season will go down Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Tom Osborne Field at Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
When the going gets tough, the tough get going. But unfortunately for Husker fans—and bettors—when the going got tough, they simply cowered in the corner.
Nebraska let a number of mistakes ruin an undefeated season when they dropped the game to Wisconsin two weeks ago, but the Huskers at least made that one close and were able to cover the spread on the road. Last week, was a much different story. Ohio State over matched them from the beginning. It was the team’s second straight loss and second ATS in the last three games.
All in all, Nebraska’s still had a fine season both SU and from a betting perspective, but a 62-3 shellacking could have major ripple effects throughout the rest of the season.
Meanwhile, on the other side, Minnesota has’ won four straight conference games and while Nebraska offers a much tougher competition, they’re the more confidence team going into Week 11 even if they’ve failed to cover two of their last three games.
Key Stat
Turnovers are key. The Huskers allowed two interceptions and quickly fell behind Ohio State last week, but before that, Nebraska was one of the better teams in turnover margin. Overall, they rank No. 31 with four more turnovers gained than lost. The Nebraska secondary is particularly apt at recording interceptions with 15.
On the flip side, the Golden Gophers aren’t a team prone to pass. Mitch Leidner is completing 57.9 percent of his passes, but has just 1,505 yards and six interceptions; though he’s thrown just five touchdowns.
Due to the strong ground game, Minnesota is ranked third in college football in turnover margin with 21 turnovers gained, but only nine allowed.
Along with the low turnover rate, the Gophers have forced 13 lost fumbles. Nebraska has only lost four fumbles all year and none in their two losses.
Letdown Spot
The Huskers are coming off a very bad start and it’s hard to predict how they’ll rebound. While Nebraska is still a highly ranked team and were undefeated just two short weeks ago, a 62-3 loss is hard to come back from even if it is against Ohio State and on the road.
We saw the Huskers make one too many mistakes against Wisconsin the week prior in a game that they needed to be near perfect to win. When going up against another formidable foe, once again as the underdog, Nebraska completely unraveled.
In that game, Tommy Armstrong Jr. left the game with a head injury but neither he nor Ryker Fyfe was able to do anything against the Ohio State defense. They combined to go 9-for-33 with 126 yards and two interceptions. And with the game already out of hand by the second quarter, the running game never had the chance to get going.
Defensively, the Huskers couldn’t do anything to stop the Buckeyes. Ohio State rushed for 238 yards and J.T. Barrett threw for four touchdowns.
The defense will be better on Saturday. Even after the disaster against the Buckeyes, they’re still an above average defense according to nearly every statistical measure, but can the offense bounce back? The team’s scored just 20 points in the last two games and Minnesota ranks No. 35 in scoring defense, allowing 23.1 PPG.
Free ATS Pick
Nebraska handily beat Minnesota last year, 48-25, and certainly has the talent to replicate that, particularly with the game being on their home field this time around, but the recent play of the Huskers has been a bit messy and that’s concerning.
There should be plenty of motivation for Nebraska, however, as they need a big bounce back win. Look for them to get it, but look for this to be a rather close game.
Nebraska’s offense has gone cold, but Minnesota’s defense has been a bit hit or miss. The Golden Eagle’s inability to move the ball in the air ultimately hurts them as they fail to do enough on the ground and the Huskers finally get back in the win column.
College Football Odds: Nebraska 32, Minnesota 28
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