The Alabama Crimson Tide answered the bell against a big-time opponent last week, going into Death Valley and knocking off powerhouse LSU. They will get a breather in Week 11 as Alabama is a gigantic favorite in a home matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Alabama still has a few more hurdles before wrapping up a spot in the College Football Playoff but this should be an easy one to clear. The Crimson Tide are more than four-touchdown favorites and should cruise to the victory.
This contest in Week 11 of the regular season will go down Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Bryant–Denny Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mississippi State +30
Alabama -30
Over/Under 55.5
Odds Analysis
The spread is high enough to cause some consternation among bettors in Alabama’s ability to cover. Mississippi State is currently getting 60 percent of the early money to cover.
The scoring total is higher than usual for an Alabama game because its offense may be able to light up the scoreboard, but the more common choice has been the “under” early in the week.
Alabama is 9-0 straight up and aiming to repeat as national champions. The Crimson Tide has been the favorite in every game this season and has covered in seven of those matchups. That’s impressive considering some of the spreads have been high. Alabama is 4-1 against the spread at home this season.
Mississippi State is 4-5 straight up on the season but has not done very well against the spread. The Bulldogs have only covered in two of nine attempts, including zero times in four tries on the road.
Key Stat
Six. That’s how many nationally-ranked teams Alabama has defeated this season, making a strong case for the team’s No. 1 ranking. Most recently, the Crimson Tide knocked off No. 10 LSU 10-0, and before that it was Texas A&M and Tennessee.
Alabama will have one big final test against archrival No. 9 Auburn but should arrive there undefeated unless the unthinkable happen and Mississippi State springs the upset. Even with the grueling schedule, Alabama has continued to outshine its opponents, outscoring those ranked opponents 241- 103.
The Crimson Tide should end the year undefeated, but even if they lost one they could still be in the College Football Playoff as one of the top four teams.
Matchup to Watch
Quarterback Nick FItzgerald against the Alabama defensive front - Can Mississippi State get anything going on the ground? The Crimson Tide shut down LSU star running back Leonard Fournette last week but Fitzgerald is a different type of threat as a mobile quarterback.
The only real chance the Bulldogs have of keeping this one close seems to be getting the running game going. Fitzgerald has 135 carries for 839 yards and eight touchdowns on the season and will look to get outside of the pocket and make plays with his legs.
The Bulldogs aren’t likely to succeed offensively, but the presence of a dual-threat signal-caller gives them a slight hope of making something out of nothing on occasion.
Free ATS Pick
It would be understandable if Alabama took a deep breath after a big win over LSU and letdown, but coach Nick Saban never seems to let that happen.
The team’s goal is to pick up another national championship, and taking care of business early on against the Bulldogs could take any consternation out of this one.
Mississippi State isn’t a bad team but it runs into a buzzsaw in this one. Alabama is once again playing like the top team in the nation and the Bulldogs have precious little chance of hanging around in this one.
Luckily, the spread is high enough that even a blowout loss can result in a cover. Take Mississippi State to scratch out the win against the spread even though the Crimson Tide will roll to the real victory. The “under” is the right call as the Bulldogs’ offense will struggle throughout.
College Football Odds: Alabama 34, Mississippi State 10
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