Four straight wins has the Arkansas State Red Wolves heading in the right direction while the New Mexico State Aggies have now dropped three in a row heading into Week 11. The New Mexico State defense is in shambles and a trip to Jonesboro is unlikely to provide any relief as the Red Wolves’ offense gets a chance for a boost against the poor Aggies’ defense.
This contest in Week 11 of the regular season will go down Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 3 p.m. ET at Centennial Bank Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Mexico State +19.5
Arkansas State -19.5
Over/Under 61.5
Odds Analysis
There hasn’t been much movement in the odds with the Red Wolves sitting as heavy favorites at home over the Aggies in what’s expected to be a rather high scoring affair based on the total.
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Arkansas State. After losing the first four games of the season both SU and ATS, they’ve gone on a four game winning streak, with the defense stepping up against Sun Belt Conference foes.
On the other side, the Aggies’ defense has remained lost. The team has lost three in a row and five of their last six games. Overall, New Mexico State is only 2-6 SU though they’ve been a better option for bettors with a 5-3 ATS record including two straight games covering the spread.
Matchup to Watch
Offensively the Red Wolves have struggled this season, particularly on the ground where they’re averaging only 135.1 yards per game to rank No. 107 in the nation. Overall, they’re No. 100 in college football in total yards and No. 92 in points per game at 24.1.
Given the futility of the running game, Justice Hansen has been a key to the team’s success and when they beat UL Monroe by 41 two weeks ago, he tossed 303 yards and four touchdowns.
On Saturday, however, the keys just may be running backs Warren Wand and Johnston White. The two each have three rushing touchdowns and have combined for 841 yards with Wand averaging 4.3 per carry and White averaging five.
In the team’s four game winning streak, Wand had a 140 game to kick off the streak while White added 126 in that game and is coming off a two touchdown performance.
Of course, neither Wand nor White is really a great back, but given the abysmal New Mexico State rush defense, the duo could be key to the Red Wolves’ ability to cover a spread that’s nearly three touchdowns wide.
Though, that said, it’s not like the Aggies defense is likely to have much success against Hansen either. They’ve got just six sacks all year and rank No. 100 against the pass, but they’re No. 120 against the rush, allowing 244.9 rushing yards per game.
Look-ahead Situation
Troy is the next team on the schedule for Arkansas State and both Troy and the Red Wolves are 4-0 in conference play headed into Week 11 so it’s quite possible Arkansas State will be looking past the Aggies to the Trojans.
It’s only natural. Week 12 presents a big game for a team that’s in the picture for a conference title and New Mexico State can hardly matchup with Arkansas State in nearly any facet of the game.
Offense is really the only area the Aggies come close, but even New Mexico’s above average pass offense will have to go up against a much tougher defense than they can muster. Overall, the Red Wolves are giving up just 25.4 points per game as the defense will bend, but—at least in the last four weeks—hasn’t broken.
Ultimately, looking past the Aggies shouldn’t cost the Red Wolves a win, but with a spread at 19.5-points, it could cost a win ATS, but with a defense as bad as the Aggies, even that’s far from a certainty.
Free ATS Pick
Take the Red Wolves to cover the spread. They’re playing at home against a defense that can even make their offenses look dynamic.
We’ve already seen the Aggies lose by 42 and 46 on the road against Texas A&M and Troy, respective, and as we’ve examined earlier, the Red Wolves are currently neck-and-neck with the Trojans in the standings.
Look for the Arkansas State rushing attack to look like a solid unit against the poor New Mexico State defense while Hansen helps provide a few big plays to allow the Red Wolves to break this one open early.
Meanwhile, the Arkansas State defense has stepped up its game and should handle Larry Rose III and Tyler Rogers who were each unable to do much against the other Aggies team from Texas A&M last week. The Red Wolves, statistically, have a superior defense to them—at least based on yardage stats.
College Football Odds: Arkansas State 42, New Mexico State 21
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