The Duke Blue Devils keep giving their conference opponents scares before eventually falling short. They will be underdogs once again this week and would love to take the next step and pull the upset of the North Carolina Tar Heels in Week 11 of the college football season.
Duke has lost three straight conference games by a total of 16 points, including falling by a field goal to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech the last two times out. The Blue Devils aren’t given much of a shot against North Carolina but will aim to buch the odds.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 11 game is set for Thursday, November 10, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Wallace Wade Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
North Carolina -11.5
Duke +11.5
Odds Analysis
The bettors aren’t expecting Duke to keep this one close, as about two-thirds of the early action has taken the Tar Heels to cover this spread. The scoring total likely won’t be too high as Duke doesn’t score a lot of points.
North Carolina is 7-2 straight up and 6-3 against the spread this season and has done an excellent job on the road, covering in all four attempts this year.
Duke is 3-6 straight up but has surpassed oddsmakers’ expectations, as it is 6-3 attempting to cover on the season. The Blue Devils are 3-2 against the spread at home this year.
Key Stat
1. That’s the number of ACC losses North Carolina has, which is tied with Virginia Tech atop the Coastal division. The Tar Heels lost to the Hokies earlier this season, so they do not have the tiebreaker, which puts them at a disadvantage.
North Carolina will need to win out and hope Virginia Tech stumbles in order to claim the divisional title. Duke almost played spoiler last week but the Hokies escaped with a 24-21 win. If the Blue Devils beat the Tar Heels, it would effectively clinch the division for Virginia Tech.
Matchup To Watch
Duke rushing attack against the North Carolina defensive front - The Blue Devils are underdogs because they don’t have a very explosive offense. Duke’s efficiency is based on its ground game, but it could be in luck since North Carolina is not very good at stopping the run.
The Blue Devils have averaged 168 rushing yards per game this season, which is a decent mark. North Carolina, meanwhile, is among the worst in the country, allowing 217.3 yards per game rushing.
Duke’s top running back was Jela Duncan, but he injured his Achilles and will miss the rest of the season. The team’s top rusher last week was quarterback Daniel Jones, who had 18 carries for 99 yards and two touchdowns. Shaun Wilson had 21 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown while Joseph Ajeigbe pitched in with six carries for 52 yards.
That trio will likely lead the way again, and if Jones can make some plays on the ground, it will make it tougher on the North Carolina defense.
Free ATS Pick
Duke has played well of late, remaining competitive against Louisville before coming so close the past two games. However, the offense just isn’t far enough along to spring the upset.
North Carolina has won three consecutive games and has seemingly found its groove of late, knocking off No. 16 Miami by a touchdown and then Virginia and Georgia Tech in blowouts.
North Carolina quarterback Mitch Trubisky has thrown for 2,707 yards this season with 19 touchdowns and only two interceptions. If he takes care of the ball, the Tar Heels should be able to take care of business on the road.
Duke has kept a lot of games close lately but this one could get out of hand as the Tar Heels are the superior team.
College Football Odds: North Carolina 33, Duke 20
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