Taking on the cream of the crop in Conference USA in successive weeks, the North Texas Mean Green will follow up a big loss to Louisiana Tech with a Week 11 showdown against an equally tough Western Kentucky Hilltoppers squad. This time, the Mean Green will be on the road in Bowling Green. After failing to cover against Louisiana Tech at home last week, North Texas faces even longer odds this Saturday.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 11 game is set for Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Houchens-Smith Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
North Texas +28
Western Kentucky -28
Over/Under 65
Odds Analysis
Look for the home team to win this game handily. The odds makers have them scoring early and often with a four touchdown spread. The total is elevated, but has dropped slightly from the 66.5 opening number.
North Texas had been a bettor’s dream earlier in the season, after a Week 1 loss ATS, the Mean Green had gone six straight without dropping another one ATS. Back to back disastrous performances, however, put a dramatic stop to that.
Nevertheless, North Texas has been the better bet over the course of the year with Western Kentucky picking up the wins SU, but going just 3-7 ATS.
The season numbers would point to North Texas as the better team ATS and a good choice given the hefty spread, but the last few weeks have reversed those trends with odds makers and bettors alike getting a better grasp of what to expect from both schools.
Matchup to Watch
Western Kentucky is clearly the better team and history backs them up in this matchup. As a team, they’ve got the statistical advantage over North Texas across the board, but the Hilltoppers are vulnerable on defense to a good passing game.
We’ve seen a couple high flying offenses like Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech score 43 and 55 against the Hilltoppers respectively. Of course, the Mean Green doesn’t have the type of passing attack to duplicate the success of the Blue Raiders or the Bulldogs. But if the Mean Green can cover the spread, it’ll be a result of the offenses’ work in the air.
For Western Kentucky to cover the 28-point spread, they’ll need their defense to take care of business against North Texas. We know the offense will light up the score board and the defensive line is strong. The rush defense is ranked No. 10 in the nation. The secondary, however, has holes, allowing 272.8 passing yards per game.
North Texas isn’t a team known for its air attack. It’s not a team known for its offense at all, averaging shy of 26 points per game. The team, however, did put up 24-points against Louisiana Tech last weekend and that could be enough to allow Mean Green to cover the spread on Saturday.
Not exactly a huge showing, but in that game Mason Fine had his second consecutive 200-yard passing game. It was also his sixth straight game with a passing touchdown.
Key Stat
Yes, the Hilltoppers are in a different class than North Texas. That’s reflected in an enormous spread.
In order to cover, the Mean Green needs to do a better job on third down than they’ve done to this point. They’ve fallen vastly short on total first downs compared to the competition and haven’t been able to get on the board as the offense fails to gain the necessary yardage to keep the chains moving.
Western Kentucky is a much better team at extending drives and if North Texas cannot bridge that gap, it’ll just fuel the blowout victory for the Hilltoppers.
North Texas is converting on just 38-percent of their third down chances. Western Kentucky is nearly nine percentage points better at 46.8-percent. That’s good enough to rank 25th in the nation.
Free ATS Pick
This is a lot points to give and that’s hard for any team that’s not one of the top handful of programs in the nation, but this matchup certainly merits it.
The Hilltoppers are cruising right now. The offense is too strong. They’ve had three straight blowout wins and offense is absolutely on fire. They’ve scored at least 44-points in every game since the start of October.
The Mean Green doesn’t have the defense to stop—or even slow—that prolific of an offense, which is loaded with weapons. It’s about more than simply covering a player or two.
What’s more, North Texas doesn’t have enough offense to match up in a shootout either.
In the end, take Western Kentucky to cover the spread and bank on the Hilltoppers’ offense to have another huge performance, leading to an over on the total.
College Football Odds: Western Kentucky 55, North Texas 21
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