History has not been kind to the Army Black Knights in their head-to-head battles against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Since 1958, the Army hasn’t been able to beat the Irish, but with Notre Dame having a down season and the Army boasting a surprisingly strong defense and their standard brilliance moving the ball on the ground, this Week 11 matchup could be Army’s chance to overcome history and topple Notre Dame.
This matchup in Week 11 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at the Alamodome.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Notre Dame -12.5
Army +12.5
Over/Under 52.5
Odds Analysis
These two famed programs meet on neutral turf on Saturday with the Fighting Irish the sizeable favorites. We’ve seen little movement on the odds since they were released with the total holding still and the spread dropping just half a point.
Army didn’t fare too well last week against the Air Force and that’s likely a big reason the odds are so pessimistic on the Black Knights for Saturday. The loss, both SU and ATS, was the team’s fourth in the last six games after a 3-0 opening to the year.
While the latest performance impacted the odds for Army, Notre Dame continues to go into action as a favorite despite losses to Texas, Michigan State, Duke, Stanford and Navy; all as the favorite. Against Duke, the were 19.5-point favorites and still came away with the loss.
Matchup to Watch
Last week, the Irish couldn’t do anything to stop Navy’s Will Worth from running rampant. The Midshipmen’s quarterback rushed for 175-yards and two touchdowns. As the team did all its damage on the ground with 320 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns.
The Black Knights offer a similar challenge for Notre Dame’s defense and, in fact, the Army running game is actually ranked a couple spots ahead of Navy in rushing yards per game.
Having shown issues with the running quarterback, look to Ahmed Bradshaw to have a big game. He’s not been quite as prolific as Worth, but he’s still rushed for 602 yards and five scores. Meanwhile, Andy Davidson could play a bigger role than any Navy running back did against the Fighting Irish last week.
Notre Dame is a below average defense against the run, allowing 177.9 yards per game on the ground and as we saw in Week 10, the unit can be exploited.
Another key matchup is the Notre Dame offense against a strong Army defense. The Black Knights have kept the opposition to 14 or fewer points six times, but have allowed more to some of the better offenses. The Irish offense, meanwhile, has been just as spotty. They’ve picked it up over their last two games, but prior to that had back-to-back games with a combined 13 points.
Last Meeting
There have been 50 meetings between these two teams over the course of history with Notre Dame going 38-8-4 and 14-0 over the last 14, dating back to the 50s.
The last team these teams met was in 2010 with the Irish getting the 27-3 victory and covering the 8.5-point spread. There’s not a whole lot of take away from that game as these teams are made up of completely different players now, but the history does mean something to the psyche of these teams.
Interestingly, while this is the first time these teams met since 2010, it could also be the first time Army gets a bowl bid since that same season. They need one more win so there’s extra motivation there for the Black Knights whose schedule doesn’t get any easier in the season’s final two games. As a result, Week 11 could be their best chance at that all-important victory.
Free ATS Pick
The Irish should nab the win on neutral turf, but this should be a closer game than the nearly two touchdown margin would suggest. This is not the same Notre Dame team that’s been amongst the competitors for the National Championship in seasons past. The Fighting Irish have failed to win games more often than not and have been a bettor’s nightmare all year.
The Black Knights have a very good defense and their offense doesn’t match up well with Notre Dame who are a below average defense against the run. The spread seems to still be propped up on reputation despite the year’s performance.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Army ends up winning this game so with 12.5 free points on top of that, take the Black Knights.
College Football Odds: Notre Dame 30, Army 27
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