The Ohio State Buckeyes will journey to College Park to take on the Maryland Terrapins in Week 11. Each team comes into play off very different Week 10 performances. For the Buckeyes, they just destroyed Nebraska with a 59-point margin while on the other side, the Terps were just destroyed by Michigan, losing by 56-points.
Watch this regular season Week 11 matchup live on Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ohio State -28
Maryland +28
Odds Analysis
Coming off a dominating victory, Ohio State is the four touchdown favorite on the road over Maryland. The spread opened at 28 and has held steady there.
The Terps are 3-6 ATS this season, but are 2-2 ATS at home, including a big win over Michigan State. That win, however, was the team’s only victory ATS in their last five outings.
That said, the Terps only loss by as many as four touchdowns this year was last week against Michigan. Ohio State offers another tough opponent, but it’s hard to imagine such blowouts in back-to-back games.
After all, the Buckeyes’ slaughter of the Huskers aside, Ohio State struggled at home against Northwestern and lost in their last road game, getting beaten by Penn State. Much like Maryland, Ohio State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
Matchup to Watch
J.T. Barrett is having a good year, providing plenty in the air with a 21:4 touchdown to interception ratio. The passing game is strong with Curtis Samuel his favorite receiver with twice as many receptions as anyone else and twice as many yards.
Samuel and Barrett, however, have also been key to a rushing attack that ranks No. 9 in college football in yards per game.
Mike Weber is the front man to this running attack. He’s notched 842 yards, gaining six yards a carry and scoring seven touchdowns, but behind him Samuel has 599 yards and five scores. He’s also gaining 7.9 yards a carry. Barrett, meanwhile, has 570 yards on 129 carries, posing as a dual-threat quarterback.
In all, 24 of the team’s 46 offensive touchdowns have come on the ground.
Maryland is a run-first team, too, with 232.7 rushing yards per game compared to 184.8 in the air. They’ll be tested against a stout Ohio State defense allowing the third fewest points.
While that’s a bit of a mismatch, it’s not the key matchup. Instead, it’s Maryland’s sub-par rush defense against Weber, Samuel and company. Maryland is allowing 226 yards per game on the ground.
Letdown Spot
Ohio State nearly lost to Northwestern two weeks ago after falling in an upset to Penn State the game prior. The Buckeyes were in need of a big win and they got just that last weekend, beating No. 10 ranked Nebraska by 59-points.
The Buckeyes’ offense, which had some spotty play up front leading into the game against the Cornhuskers, lit up the scoreboard with 66 points. That’s the most ever scored by Ohio State against a top-10 team.
Everyone was performing on offense. Barrett had a huge four touchdown game and the team added 238 yards on the ground. Samuel played a role in both the passing and rushing game with 178 total yards.
The offense kept the defense off the field, but when the defense did enter they game, they didn’t let Nebraska get any momentum, allowing just nine first downs all game long. The defense also returned a couple of picks for touchdowns.
That win against the Huskers was huge, but in it, everything broke right and has the game progressed, Nebraska checked out, allowing Ohio State to run up the score.
After a top-10 team, a Maryland team coming off a 59-3 loss of their own isn’t exactly an intimidating opponent. Nevertheless, this is a Terps team that upset Michigan State in their last home game and one that’s 3-1 at home.
If Ohio State looks past Maryland towards Michigan State and Michigan in the final two games of the regular season, the Terps could put some points up early and prevent the Buckeyes from running away with this game—at least from running too far out in front.
Free ATS Pick
Some of this four touchdown spread is predicated on a huge game from Ohio State against Nebraska and a dismal showing for Maryland against Michigan this past weekend.
We saw the best of the best from Ohio State and the worst from Maryland. The Terps aren’t as bad as they showed and, likewise, the Buckeyes aren’t nearly that good. After all, that win came after what’s been nearly a month of lackluster performances by Ohio State.
Last season, the Buckeyes beat up on Maryland, but still won by just 21. This game, on the other hand, is played at home for Maryland. That should count for something.
While Ohio State still walks away with a win in rather easy fashion, take advantage of the inflated spread and bank on the Terps and four touchdowns over the Buckeyes.
College Football Odds: Ohio State 47, Maryland 23
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