The Texas A&M Aggies were a surprise team near the top of the College Football Playoff a week ago, but a loss to Mississippi State has dropped them down the rankings. With their national championship hopes extinguished, it will be interesting to see how the team bounces back in a Week 11 matchup against the Ole Miss Rebels.
Texas A&M is a double-digit favorite and hopes to take care of business at home against Ole Miss. Both teams will look starkly different as injuries at quarterback will make this one a tough one to peg.
This matchup in Week 11 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kyle Field.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ole Miss +10
Texas A&M -10
Over/Under 55.5
Odds Analysis
The Rebels are getting 65 percent of the action to cover the spread, which makes sense because of the backup quarterbacks on both sides entering the fray.
The “under” is also getting hit hard as it makes sense that the offenses could struggle.
Ole Miss is 4-5 straight up and has only gone 2-7 against the spread this season. The Rebels have gone on the road three times and failed to cover in each of those matchups.
Texas A&M is 7-2 straight up and is 5-4 against the spread. The Aggies have done a really nice job at home this season, covering in four of their five attempts.
Injury Report
Both teams will be without their starting quarterbacks in this matchup. Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly, who has thrown for more than 2,700 yards this season, is out for the season after tearing his ACL in the 37-27 win over Georgia Southern last week and Texas A&M’s Trevor Knight is also done for the season with a shoulder injury.
Ole Miss relies heavily on its passing game so this game will be a real test. Jason Pellerin is next in line for the Rebels, but Hugh Freeze is not opposed to other options if he is unsuccessful. Jake Hubenak will replace Knight for the Aggies.
If only one side lost their quarterback, it likely would have swung the spread multiple points, but both going down makes this one tough to peg. Kelly and Knight have both found a lot of success this year and the teams will need to regroup near the end of the season as they both try to finish strong.
Player To Watch
Trayveon Williams - The Texas A&M running back has done a solid job this season, rushing the ball 109 times for 804 yards and six touchdowns. He had 217 rushing yards in a mid-October game against Tennessee to help spark a win, but has not put up very big numbers since then.
Williams has not cracked 50 yards rushing in any of the past three games and will likely be relied on a lot in this one. If he can have a big game, it will be a big plus in the Aggies’ hope at winning this game and covering the spread.
Free ATS Pick
The absence of Knight and Kelly surely throws a curveball into this matchup. Texas A&M still looks like the most talented team, especially since Kelly was so good and relied upon by the Rebels, but it’s hard to know exactly how it will play out.
In a case like this, it makes much more sense to take the points. This one could be a bit sloppy as the teams try to get their quarterbacks up to speed, but the Aggies still should have enough to win this game. However, take Ole Miss to cover the spread and the “under” is the easy call because of the injury situation.
College Football Odds: Texas A&M 27, Ole Miss 19
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