Since pulling out the overtime win over Minnesota on October 1, the Penn State Nittany Lions have been a remade team. The Lions will now shoot for their sixth straight win as they head to Bloomington to take on the Indiana Hoosiers in Week 11. Both the recent trends and history favor the Lions who have beaten Indiana eight of the nine times these teams met over the last decade.
This matchup in Week 11 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Penn State -6.5
Indiana +6.5
Odds Analysis
The Hoosiers opened as seven point dogs at home as the Nittany Lions have been rolling. The spread has shrunk half a point.
Indiana is not a ranked team like Penn State, but the Hoosiers have won back-to-back games. The spread, however, hasn’t been as favorable. The team is 1-3 ATS in their last four games and 4-5 ATS on the year. They’ve been underdogs four times, covering the spread twice.
As for Penn State, the Nittany Lions lost to Pittsburgh in Week 2 and fell to Michigan to close out September, but since the team’s been on fire, winning five in a row both SU and ATS.
Key Stat
Part of Penn State’s recent turnaround has been its ability to drastically cut down on the turnovers. Interceptions and fumbles were both problems last year and some of that bled into the 2-2 start to 2016.
Trace McSorley has thrown just three interceptions all year long, 10 fewer than Richard Lagow has coughed up. Since the start of the winning streak, he’s been able to avoid interceptions all together with nine touchdowns and no picks.
The overall turnover margin between these teams is a bit narrower than the raw interception margin, sitting at only five in nine games. In their last two games, however, the Lions have no turnovers at all, but have forced five from their opponents. Since the start of their winning streak, Penn State has a margin of five, allowing just two turnovers while forcing seven.
Indiana’s tendancy to make key mistakes and give up the ball is the biggest difference in the game. Both offenses have been good, but the Lions’ defense will—along with a good special teams unit—allow Penn State to not only eek out the win, but also cover the spread on the road.
Last Meeting
The Penn State defense controlled the last time these teams played. The Hoosiers managed just seven points on a rushing touchdown from Zander Diamont who threw for just 90 yards.
Overall, the Nittany Lions outgained Indiana by 186 yards, controlled the clock for 10-minutes more, won the penalty battle and was the far better team on third down chances.
Defensively, the Nittany Lions have kept the opposition to 24 or fewer points in four straight games including against some top tier offenses like Ohio State. Indiana is averaging 27.1 points per game and does have the No. 21 ranked passing offense, but the Hoosiers aren’t consistently able to score, either. They’ve scored 75 combined points in the last two games, but scored just 14 against Northwestern prior to that.
Penn State controlled running back Devine Redding last year and in the air, while Richard Lagow has passed for 2,576 yards, he’s prone to the pick, throwing 13 interceptions.
Free ATS Pick
It seems a bit unfathomable considering the turmoil this team was under earlier in the year, but the Nittany Lions are one of college football’s hottest teams right now after beating Iowa 41-14 and notching an upset against Ohio State earlier in the year, the only loss for the now sixth ranked Buckeyes.
Moorhead’s no-huddle, spread offense had a few bumps in the early part of the year, but is producing 34.4 points per game and has yielding 103-points in the last two weeks.
Indiana’s offense is going pretty well right now, too, and they can be expected to put a few points on the board, but the consistency for the Hoosiers is just not there. They’re coming off a few conference wins, but the competition of Maryland and Rutgers isn’t quite the same as Ohio State and Iowa.
Look for Penn State’s red hot run to continue as they cover the spread and beat the Hoosiers by more than a touchdown with the Indiana defensive struggles being the key to the Lions’ victory.
College Football Odds: Penn State 38, Indiana 27
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