The San Diego State Aztecs can wrap up the Mountain West Division with a victory over the Nevada Wolfpack in Week 11 of the college football season. The Aztecs are undefeated in conference play and are heavy favorites to take care of business in this one as well.
San Diego State has been rolling of late and a road matchup isn’t stopping it from being more than three-touchdown favorites to capture this contest. Nevada is unlikely to make a bowl game so will basically be reduced to the role of spoiler if it can capture this one.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 11 game is set for Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Clarence Mackay Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Diego State -22.5
Nevada 22.5
Over/Under 50
Odds Analysis
San Diego State is a heavy favorite and yet still is getting a large majority of the betting action, as more than 84 percent of the money has come in on the Aztecs.
The scoring total has been pegged too low as all of the early money has chosen the “over,” although that could even out as the week goes on.
San Diego State is 8-1 straight up and has gone 5-4 against the spread this season. The Aztecs have been favored in every game and have covered in five of those. San Diego State is 2-2 trying to cover on the road.
Nevada is 3-6 straight up and 3-5 attempting to cover the spread. The Wolfpack have not been great trying to cover at home, doing so only one time in four attempts.
Matchup to Watch
San Diego State rushing game vs. Nevada run defense - This matchup could be the difference in the game. The Aztecs average 273.9 yards per game on the ground, which has helped lead to an average of 35.8 points per game.
San Diego State has only averaged 141 passing yards per contest but very few teams have forced it to the air, and it seems unlikely to change in this one.
Nevada has allowed 279.9 yards per game on the ground, which is one of the worst marks nationally. That’s the biggest reason why the Wolfpack have struggled so much this year, as they are giving up 28.3 points per game.
San Diego State’s leading rusher is Donnel Pumphrey, as he has 244 carries for 1,581 yards and 13 touchdowns. If he can get untracked, the Aztecs should be able to run away with this one.
Key Stat
15.1. That’s how many points the Aztecs defense is holding opposing offenses too. In fact, the team has held its last five opponents to 13 points or less while shutting out Hawai’i last week.
The defense is allowing just 86 rushing yards a game right now and 187.2 passing yards. San Diego State held Hawai’i to just 48 rushing yards this week in its second shutout of the season.
Nevada doesn’t seem likely to crack that, as the Wolfpack are averaging only 22.9 points per game. If Nevada can get something, it will likely be on the strength of its rushing game, which averages 169.1 yards per contest.
Free ATS Pick
San Diego State seems to be on a crash course with either Wyoming or Boise State for the Mountain West title. If the Aztecs can simply roll up another win they will clinch that spot.
Nevada is a foe that seems to offer very little resistance. Even though the spread is pretty high, expect the Aztecs to breeze past it. The offense should light up the scoreboard and the San Diego State defense will also play well in what should be a blowout.
College Football Odds: San Diego State 38, Nevada 13
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