The South Florida Bulls lost a showdown to Temple a couple weeks ago, so they must be perfect down the stretch in order to have a shot at capturing the American East division. That includes a tough road win in Week 11 against the Memphis Tigers, who hope to sneak back into the conference race in the West division.
South Florida has an explosive offense but Memphis has been solid on both sides of the ball this season, so this will be an intriguing showdown. The Tigers are a slight home underdog but could easily pick up this win.
This contest in Week 11 of the season will go down Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
South Florida -2.5
Memphis +2.5
Over/Under 73.5
Odds Analysis
The Bulls are slight favorites and the money has been evenly split to both sides, with South Florida getting 51.5 percent of the early action. The scoring total is high because both offenses are good although the gamblers believe it’s too high with about two-thirds of the money coming in on the “under.”
South Florida has gone 7-2 straight up and 4-5 against the spread this season. The Bulls are 4-4 attempting to cover as the favorite this season.
Memphis is 6-3 straight up and 5-4 against the spread. The Tigers have only been the underdog once this year and did cover in that game.
Player to Watch
Quinton Flowers - South Florida has averaged the seventh-most points per game this season with 43.4 per contest, and much of that is due to the dazzling display put on weekly by the star quarterback.
Flowers has thrown for 1,941 yards with 17 touchdowns against five interceptions this season and has also dominated with his legs. He has carried the ball 121 times for 921 yards and 10 scores.
Flowers helped lead South Florida to a 52-45 win over No. 22 Navy last week by completing 19-of-29 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns while adding 13 carries for 176 yards and two more scores.
He has rushed for at least 46 yards in every game this season and has surpassed 150 yards rushing three times.
Key Stat
466.3. That’s the total yards per game allowed by the South Florida defense, which is why this one is expected to be such a shootout. The Bulls are giving up 30.2 points per game including 247.8 passing yards per game and 218.6 rushing yards per contest.
Memphis’ offense is lethal, as it is averaging 38.9 points per contest. Quarterback Riley Ferguson has thrown for 2,565 yards with 21 touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season. The Tigers are a solid passing game and have shown the ability to move the ball on the ground as well, so South Florida will have its hands full.
Free ATS Pick
The Bulls have the most talented player on the field in Flowers, but Memphis may have more balance overall. Flowers will try to gash the Tigers on the ground, but if they can stay disciplined against him and avoid the big play, Memphis may be able to cause some turnovers.
The Tigers won’t have it easy, but this game is possible to pull the upset. South Florida’s defense has given up fewer points than its total yardage would suggest, and it could be in for a rude awakening in this one.
The “over” is the right call as this one should be an entertaining shootout, but the wrong team is favored. Memphis will take advantage of being in its comfortable home setting and not only cover this spread but win the game outright. Take the Tigers for a nice payout.
College Football Odds: Memphis 44, South Florida 41
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