The Stanford Cardinal and Oregon Ducks expected this late-season showdown to help determine the Pac-12 North. Instead, it’s between a pair of underwhelming teams who aren’t in the race.
Stanford has a better record but neither team has been particularly impressive this season. Nonetheless, this should be an interesting matchup since Stanford has a really good defense and no offense, while the Ducks are on the other side of the ledger with a really good offense and no defense.
Stanford is the slight road favorite in this matchup as it aims to salvage a season that started with such high hopes but went downhill quickly.
This matchup in Week 11 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 12th, 2016, at 4 p.m. ET at Autzen Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Stanford -3
Oregon +3
Over/Under 57
Odds Analysis
Stanford is a field goal favorite and the bettors like that spread as more than 82 percent of the action is coming in on the Cardinal to cover. The scoring total is an interesting one since these two teams play such distinct styles, and the oddsmakers have split the difference.
The heavier action is coming on the “over” and it will be really interesting to see the way this game unfolds.
Both teams have underperformed expectations and unsurprisingly aren’t doing well against the spread this season.
Stanford is 6-3 straight up and 3-6 against the spread, including only two covers in six attempts as the favorite.
Oregon is only 3-6 overall, which is a huge fall after expecting to compete for the conference title. The Ducks are 1-6-2 against the spread on the season and have only covered once in five tries at home this season.
Player to Watch
Christian McCaffrey - The Stanford running back is back to full-strength and, in fact, he comes into this one after his best game of the season. McCaffrey had 32 carries for 199 yards and a touchdown in the win over Oregon State last week.
McCaffrey had a strong start to the season, but went down with an undisclosed injury in the Washington State on October 8th and missed the next game against Notre Dame. Last week’s performance marked his third game this year where he’s rushed for 150 yards or more.
McCaffrey was on the short list of Heisman Trophy hopefuls to begin the season but like the team has underachieved. However, Oregon has allowed 238 rushing yards per game this season and McCaffrey could be in line for a huge game.
Key Stat
18.6. That’s the average number of points allowed per game for Stanford, which will try to keep in check the Oregon offense. The Ducks are averaging 38.2 points per game and nearly 500 yards of total offense, so it will be a complete matchup of strengths.
The battle in the trenches will be of utmost importance. Oregon likes to move fast and get the running game going, but if the Stanford defensive line can get a push it will put a big wrench into those plans.
Free ATS Pick
Frankly, this spread is too close. While Stanford’s offense has had a tough time getting on track this season, this is a great matchup against a Ducks defense which has trouble slowing down opponents.
McCaffrey should have an absolute field day, and even though Stanford has had big-time issues passing the ball this year, the passing lanes should be open.
Oregon will have its share of big plays offensively, but overall expect Stanford’s defense to win this matchup as well. The Cardinal are on the road so that’s a concern, but they have the better team and coach and should be able to win this game outright as well as cover the spread.
College Football Odds: Stanford 30, Oregon 24
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