It’s been eight years since the Texas Tech Red Raiders have managed to beat the Oklahoma State Cowboys. They’ll try to stop the streak from reaching nine here in Week 11, but they’ll need quite an upset to accomplish that feat as the Cowboys have won five straight, taking down better teams than the Red Raiders.
This matchup in Week 11 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Boone Pickens Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas Tech +12
Oklahoma State -12
Odds Analysis
Texas Tech has fared better ATS than it has SU, but no matter how you slice it, Week 10’s loss to Texas was a disappointment. The Red Raiders were the slight favorites at home against the Longhorns, but failed to get the win as the defense couldn’t hold up its end of the bargain.
Texas Tech opened at nearly two touchdown underdogs on the road. This line could shrink as the week progresses.
Meanwhile, across the gridiron, the Cowboys enter play with an identical ATS record and a much better mark SU, going 7-2 and 5-1 at home.
Oklahoma State’s offense has been on-point, helping the Cowboys to easily cover the spread in their last three games.
Matchup to Watch
The key to this game is obviously the passing attack on both sides. Whichever defensive secondary can manage to contain the other the best wins this game. It’s simple as that. Neither team is much of a threat on the ground.
Ultimately, based on the above criteria, it should be the Cowboys coming away victorious. They’re ranked No. 80 in passing yards per game. While that’s far from great, it’s not bad compared to the Red Raiders ranking No. 123.
Texas Tech does have the more prolific passing game. They’re tops in the sport with 485.8 yards a game through the air. Patrick Mahomes III is flat out dynamic with 3,886 yards and 31 touchdowns. He’s even rushed for 10 touchdowns. He’s only gaining 2.4 yards per carry running the ball, but the fact he’s mobile at all makes him that much more dangerous in the air.
He’s got tons of weapons at his disposal, too. There are seven different receivers with at least 20 receptions. That group is headlined by Jonathan Giles and Cameron Batson with 60 receptions, 982 yards and 12 scores for Giles and 51 catches, 523 yards and eight scores for Batson.
Flip things over and the Cowboys are ranked seventh in the passing attack. Mason Rudolph has an excellent completion percentage, but is a few yards behind Mahomes with 2,986 passing yards and has just 22 touchdowns, though he’s also got fewer interceptions.
The interceptions is crucial. With both teams throwing the ball early and often and both moving the ball quickly and efficiently in the air, running up the score, giving up the ball—and the momentum—is that much more important.
These two teams are separated by just one turnover in nine games on offense with the Cowboys giving the ball up 12 times and the Red Raiders 13 times.
Last Meeting
As you would expect, the last time these teams’ met, it was a brutal game for the defenses. The teams combined to score 123 points and each team had the equivalent of at least two touchdowns in every quarter save for a shutout in the third quarter for the Red Raiders.
For those that love the passing game, this game had everything. Both teams were neck and neck in passing yards with the Red Raiders at 480 and the Cowboys at 478.
This time around, both starting quarterbacks are back and both dismal defensive units are comparable, too.
We could very well be in for a repeat which leaves the offensive difference to a 22 yard gap in favor of Oklahoma State. As will be the case on Saturday, the biggest difference was the turnovers. Mahomes threw two picks and Rudolph: just one.
Other than that additional interception—and a lost fumble—the Red Raiders actually led in the battle for time of possession, first downs, third down efficiency and even completion percentage.
Free ATS Pick
Jump on the Red Raiders’ bandwagon if the spread stays at 12-points. Sure, the Cowboys have been good ATS, but the Texas Tech offense is electric and can keep them in a game even if the other team is scoring at will. The Red Raiders have only failed to keep a game within 12-points once in the last five games. So, while this team is slumping, they’re at least keeping things close.
As always with Texas Tech, look for a boat load of points. Oklahoma State is another team built around the offense, namely in the air, though the Cowboys do have a bit more of a running game. That makes them a bit less vulnerable.
Ultimately, Oklahoma State is the better team with the better defense. They get that one big interception to give them the win SU, but this will be a shootout and it will go down to the end of the fourth quarter.
College Football Odds: Oklahoma State 55, Texas Tech 48
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