If anyone is going to spoil Western Michigan’s trip to the MAC Title Game, it will be the Toledo Rockets. Toledo has one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Logan Woodside and has looked absolutely unstoppable on offense for much of the season. In Week 11 college football action, that unstoppable offense will travel to a neutral site game in the White Sox’ stadium to face the Northern Illinois Huskies.
This contest in Week 11 will go down Wednesday, November 9, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Toledo -6.5
Northern Illinois +6.5
Odds Analysis
The Rockets are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS coming into game. Toledo has a great offense, but an inconsistent defense has led to its only two losses of the season. For the most part, the Rockets’ bend but don’t break style is effective, but when it breaks, it shatters.
The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in MAC play and have three outright wins following a winless non-conference slate. Those wins came against the dregs of the conference though.
Player to Watch
Logan Woodside is having a season to remember. The signal-caller has sparkled throughout the year and is yet to have a poor performance.
Through nine games, he has yet to record a passer rating below 166.7 and he has thrown for at least three touchdowns in every game. Unlike schools like Texas Tech and Washington State that have their quarterbacks throw all over the place though, Woodside is getting it done in a balanced offense. He has only thrown more than 38 passes in a game once this season and that highlights the balanced attack Toledo exhibits.
Woodside also is extremely efficient with the ball. He has completed over 70 percent of his passes on the season and his TD to INT ratio is fantastic as well. The Huskies’ defense has shown a propensity to give up yards through the air that he’ll look to exploit.
Matchup to Watch
The Huskies have been pretty good at running the ball, even if you wouldn’t think so given their record. Northern Illinois is averaging 5.55 yards a carry and two of the three leading rushers are averaging at least 6.8 yards per rush.
Perhaps most impressive is how the Huskies have fared against the teams is has lost to in the conference. When NIU took on Western Michigan, the Huskies averaged six yards a carry and when they took on Central Michigan they rushed for 4.7 yards a pop.
Toledo has had some issues stopping the run and if Northern Illinois can move the chains on the ground it can pull off the upset. The Rockets allowed Dorian Brown of Ohio to run for over 200 yards in a loss two weeks ago and this defense can be gashed.
Free ATS Pick
Toledo has been awesome on third down both offensively and defensively this year. The Rockets have converted an impressive 54.14 percent of their third downs on the season and have only allowed opponents to convert 23.28 percent of their chances. Even though the defense is giving up a lot of yards, their ability to get off the field has kept them from giving up too many points.
Don’t overthink this one. Woodside is a handful for any defense to stop, much less a Northern Illinois side that has had a lot of issues this year. Even though the Huskies might move the ball rather effectively on the ground, it won’t be enough to overcome what should be an awesome performance from Woodside. Look for a 400-yard performance from Woodside and three or four touchdowns through the air in a high-scoring affair that the Rockets cover.
College Football Odds: Rockets 38, Huskies 28
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