The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes and Navy Midshipmen sit even at 4-1 in conference atop the AAC West standings, each looking to differentiate itself from the other as they get set to square off in Annapolis here in Week 11. Last year was the only time these teams met in the last 10 years with Navy winning handily, 44-21, while rushing for 469 yards.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 11 game is set for Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tulsa -2.5
Navy +2.5
Odds Analysis
The Midshipmen opened as favorites at home by a point, but bettors have been jumping on Tulsa to get the upset at home and the odds have since flopped with a 3.5-point swing, now putting Tulsa over Navy by 2.5-points.
Tulsa’s edge according to the odds can be attributed back to an offense that’s average 51-points per game over their last three games.
The Golden Hurricanes have now covered four straight games and have been on a roll with sizeable victories over three straight AAC opponents. After a win against Notre Dame, Navy presents a unique challenge having already beaten a Houston team that toppled Tulsa earlier this year. The Midshipmen have also covered in three of their last four games; including getting the SU victory in the only other home game that they entered as underdogs.
Matchup to Watch
Tulsa’s latest run of success has been directly attributable to an offense that’s been absolutely on fire.
Dane Evans has three straight multi-touchdown games while James Flanders has been running basically at will with at least 181 yards in each game, combining for nine rushing touchdowns in those three games.
What’s more, the Golden Hurricanes got an additional 180 yards and score out of D’Angelo Brewer in the win over East Carolina.
On the other side, Navy’s offense is ranked No. 4 in the nation in rushing yards per game with 299.5. Unlike Tulsa, for the Midshipmen, nearly all of the offense comes on the ground. That’s what gives the Golden Hurricane’s the offensive edge, but defensively Navy has the upper hand.
Tulsa is allowing 31 points per game to Navy’s 28.6. Navy also managed to play pretty good defense against Notre Dame while Tulsa gave up 355 rushing yards on 49 carries against Tulane the last time they faced a solid running offense. Navy is better than the Green Wave on the ground.
Key Stat
Both Navy and Tulsa are good on third down conversions and the Golden Hurricanes have been able to turn more red zone possessions into points than Navy, coming away with something 90.9-percent of the time compared the Midshipmen’s 83.3-percent.
The difference, however, is much of the time the Golden Hurricanes are left with a field goal while Navy’s ground game has had better success pushing the ball into the end zone.
As for red zone possessions that actually turn into touchdowns, just 26 out of 44 chances ended up in the Promised Land for Tulsa. That’s 59.1-percent. In 42 chances, the Navy has 32 touchdowns for 76.2-percent.
For Navy, Will Worth has 15 rushing touchdowns and Chris High has five, but six other players have carried the ball into the end zone at least once.
The ability for either team to get the big stop in the red zone could very well be the difference maker with both offenses likely to score early and often.
On defense the trend continues. Navy is more likely to give up points if Tulsa reaches the red zone, but the Golden Hurricanes are more likely to give up a touchdown if the Midshipmen make it inside the 20.
Free ATS Pick
Navy is a good team and is at home against a Tulsa team that went into overtime against Fresno State on the road. Look for the Midshipmen’s defense to do a better job against Tulsa than Tulane, Memphis and East Carolina were able to do.
Meanwhile, don’t bank on much from the Golden Hurricane’s on the defensive side of the ball. Navy's triple-option rushing attack was able to plow through Memphis and Houston and even help the Midshipmen register a win against Notre Dame this past weekend.
Sure, Tulsa is a better team this year than last, but given the easy win for Navy last year on the road, take the points and look for the Midshipmen to get a closer victory SU on Saturday.
College Football Odds: Navy 38, Tulsa 35
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