The Louisville Cardinals got back to their blowout ways last week against Boston College and are now sitting at No. 5 in the race for the College Football Playoff. Louisville has played like one of the four best teams in the nation, but with Alabama, Washington, Michigan and Clemson all undefeated, it needs some help to move up.
Louisville must keep winning in dominant fashion and will aim to do so in a home game against the outmanned Wake Forest Demon Deacons in Week 11 of the college football season. Style points could matter when it comes down to the final selection so the Cardinals don’t need to just win but have to win in style.
This contest in Week 11 of the season will go down Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Wake Forest +33
Louisville -33
Odds Analysis
There have been some ridiculously high spreads involving Louisville this season and here’s another one. The Cardinals regularly blow teams out by 30, 40 or even 50 points, and so even with this spread the money is coming in more heavily on Louisville to cover at about a 70 percent clip.
Louisville is 8-1 straight up and 6-3 against the spread this season. The Cardinals have covered in three of their four home games this season.
Wake Forest is 6-3 on the year and 5-4 against the spread. The Demon Deacons have covered in three of their four road games this season and will have plenty of points to work with if they can remain competitive for just a little while.
Player to Watch
Lamar Jackson - The Louisville quarterback is putting the finishing touches on a campaign which seems likely to end with a Heisman Trophy. Jackson has thrown for 2,753 yards with 26 touchdowns and six interceptions on the season. He has added 162 carries for 1,1181 yards and 19 more scores.
Jackson accounted for seven touchdowns last time out against Boston College, throwing for 231 yards and four scores while adding 185 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
With Jackson at the helm, the Cardinals have averaged 50.2 points this season. Wake Forest is generally pretty stingy on defense, giving up only 18.4 points per game on the season, but Louisville is a different animal than most of their opponents.
Louisville has scored 50 points or more in six of its games this season and will look to add another one to the list. If that happens, it will be tough for Wake Forest to cover the spread.
Key Stat
167.4. That’s the number of passing yards per game Wake Forest averages this season, a number that seems unlikely to cut it in order to stick reasonably close to Louisville. The Demon Deacons will need to score some points in this one or else they will get demolished quickly.
Much of that falls on the shoulders of quarterback John Wolford. He has thrown for 1,313 yards with only five touchdowns against seven interceptions this season. Wolford threw five interceptions combined in recent losses to Army and Florida State, but did a better job of holding on to the ball in last week’s win over Virginia.
He will need to make plays through the air but also avoid interceptions if Wake Forest wants to hang around in this one past halftime.
Free ATS Pick
It’s never easy to choose a game when the spread is this high. Any hiccups early on, and it will be tough for Louisville to cover.
However, the Cardinals know what is at stake, as they need blowout wins the rest of the way to try to impress the selection committee. Louisville won’t be content with simply winning this game, and that has to be considered in this choice.
Jackson should have another big game and the pedal-to-the-floor mentality will help Louisville crush Wake Forest and cover this large spread.
College Football Odds: Louisville 48, Wake Forest 10
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