The Texas Longhorns recorded its first road win with a victory over Texas Tech this past Saturday and will return home for its Week 11 showdown with the West Virginia Mountaineers where they’re undefeated to this point. At 7-1, the Mountaineers rank No. 11 according to the AP and provide a real threat to Texas’ ability to remain undefeated at home.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 11 game is set for Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
West Virginia +2.5
Texas -2.5
Odds Analysis
Texas opened as the one point favorite at home with the spread having already grown by a point and a half.
The Mountaineers have one blemish on their record, a road loss to Oklahoma State, but ATS, it’s been a much tougher year for West Virginia. They’ve covered just three times this season and are 1-2 ATS as the road team.
Texas isn’t as good of a team as the Mountaineers, but the Longhorns have come away with some big wins, including topping Baylor and beating Notre Dame at the start of the year. They’ve also done well ATS, covering in six of their nine games, including four of their last five.
Last year, West Virginia beat Texas and covered the spread, but Texas covered the spread and got the win the last time these two teams met in the Lone star state.
Matchup to Watch
The Mountaineers have the edge on defense and in the air. The difference that could give Texas the advantage is the running game. Sure, West Virginia can run with the ball, but D’Onta Foreman is a stud.
Foreman rushed for 341 yards against Texas Tech, tearing up the abysmal Red Raider’s defense. He recorded 10.3 yards a carry in that game and had three touchdowns, his fifth multi-touchdown game of the season.
The huge performance came on the heels of a 250 yards, two score game against Baylor the game before.
On the year, Foreman has seven yards per carry and has at least 124 yards in every game.
It’s pretty much a given that Foreman will get at least those 124 yards, but can West Virginia limit it there?
The Mountaineers are actually a bit above average defensively against the run, that’s played a large role in West Virginia’s No. 20 ranked scoring defense despite a less impressive defense when looking at the yardage stats.
West Virginia is giving up 148.2 rushing yards per game. By comparison, the Texas Tech and Baylor defenses that Foreman tore up average 236 and 205.6 rushing yards per game allowed, respectively.
On Saturday, Foreman gets his yards and does his part, but he doesn’t completely take over the game as he did the last two weekends.
Key Stat
A team’s performance on third down is a major differentiator and in this matchup, it’s the road team with the upper hand.
The Texas defense is a weakness, particularly in the air, and opposing offenses have really taken advantage of that to extend drives. The Longhorns area a below average team on third downs, allowing the opposition to convert 41.4-percent of the time.
Meanwhile, offensively, the Mountaineers are No. 19 in their ability to covert third down opportunities, notching a first down 47.4-percent of the time.
Free ATS Pick
This is the day that Texas takes its first home loss of the 2016 season. As a result, take the Mountaineers to cover the spread and get the upset.
West Virginia is better on third down chances, has a more balanced defense and while not quite as prolific offensively, the team has plenty of offense to exploit the Longhorns’ defensive inefficiencies.
The Mountaineers have the 10th most yards per game in college football, they’ve not been as efficient with those yards as some, but they’re stills scoring 33.2 points per game and even with Rushel Shell injured Justin Crawford is dynamic on the ground with 6.2 yards per carry with Skyler Howard is efficient and effective in the air—while also able to run the ball, particularly in the red zone.
Texas, meanwhile, is a stronger rushing team and the Mountaineer’s defense is actually above average—at least according to rushing yards allowed—against the run.
College Football Odds: West Virginia 35, Texas 31
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