The Air Force Falcons beat the San Jose State Spartans in a landslide victory at the U.S. Air Force Academy a season ago and will look to do the same, this time on the road. The Spartans will hope to surprise in Week 12, much as they did in Week 10, as they once again enter a home game as underdogs.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 12 game is set for Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Spartan Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Air Force -10
San Jose State +10
Over/Under 57
Odds Analysis
Bettors have shown they’re willing to back Air Force in this game, but are a bit weary about giving too many points to the home team. The spread started at 11, but has since shrunk to just a touchdown and field goal. Meanwhile, the total has dropped, too, down a point and half from the opening 58.5.
The Falcons are 7-3 compared to the Spartans 3-7 mark, but it’s with the slightly better record ATS at 4-5 rather than 4-6.
While playing well of late, Air Force has not been a good bet, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
Matchup to Watch
San Jose State played surprisingly well against Boise State right before their bye. Speaking of the bye, they come into this game well rest. Those are both strong positives for the Spartans, but there’s one matchup that skews this heavily in the favor of the Air Force.
Despite playing reasonably well against the Broncos, San Jose State still allowed 298 rushing yards with two separate players rushing for at least 100 yards. The Spartans also surrendered three rushing touchdowns.
The Spartans are a poor defensive team with 36.1 points allowed per game and the defense is especially poor against the run as we saw against Boise State.
That, obviously, signals trouble for San Jose State as the Air Force is one of the more prolific running teams in college football with 310.1 rushing yards per game, the third most in the nation.
There’s tons of depth in the Falcons’ backfield and the team has seven players having rushed for at least 218 yards and have six with at least three rushing touchdowns.
Timothy McVey was the rushing leader against Colorado State last week with 184 yards and four touchdowns. The team as a whole rushed for 485 yards.
The week before Jacobi Owens led the team with 106 yards against Army and before that, it was Arion Worthman taking the lead with 102 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Fresno State.
Honestly, the only hope for San Jose State to in any way limit the ground game is to get ahead early and force Worthman to throw—getting Air Force out of its game plan. If they keep him to less than a dozen pass attempts, that’s bad news for the Spartans.
Key Stat
A strong running game can be a godsend on third and short situations so it’s no wonder that Air Force is amongst the best third down offenses in college football.
Ranked seventh in the sport, the Falcons are converting more than half of their third down opportunities, helping them extend drives and as importantly, dominant the clock. That’s been a major key to their success.
Defensively, while a better team than the Spartans, the Falcons are allowing the opposition to convert their own third down chances 45.5-percent of the time. Can San Jose State take advantage of that to even the odds back up a bit? It’s hard to say, but not likely. The Spartans are converting less than 39-percent of their third down chances.
Free ATS Pick
Having one of the worst defensive lines that’s been unable to stop even mediocre rushing attacks against an offense that’s almost exclusively built on the run is a recipe for disaster if you are a fan of the Spartans or if you put your money on San Jose State.
Yes, the Spartans held the own against Boise State. Yes, Kenny Potter had a good game and yes, he could help power the offense to keep the game close, but the Air Force will exploit the porous San Jose State run defense even more than the Broncos were able to. Let’s not forget, this is a bad team in a weak division outside one of the big conferences.
Look for the Falcons to run all over the Spartans, completely dominating the time of possession. For the Air Force, it’s all about moving the ball on the ground and a solid defense. The Spartans offensively rank No. 99 in points allowed and No. 98 in yards allowed, neither are that great.
College Football Odds: Air Force 36, San Jose State 24
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