It’s been a topsy-turvy season for the Arkansas Razorbacks, who have shown the ability to both knock off some nationally ranked teams but also get blown out by others. Arkansas won’t face a team in the polls in Week 12 but will nonetheless be only a slight favorite when it hits the road to play the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Mississippi State needs a strong finish to attain bowl eligibility and could really use a win in this game which is a virtual toss-up.
This matchup in Week 12 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Davis Wade Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Arkansas -1
Mississippi State +1
Odds Analysis
Arkansas is two games better in the standings but only gets a one-point cushion by the oddsmakers. However, the bettors believe that spread is too low as a vast majority of the early money is coming in on the Razorbacks.
Arkansas is 6-4 straight up and has knocked off Florida, Ole Miss and TCU, among others, on the season. However, the Razorbacks have also fallen on their face in other prime matchups and thus are only 4-6 against the spread this season. They have covered once in three tries on the road.
Mississippi State is 4-6 overall and has been really bad against the spread, covering just twice in 10 tries.
Player to Watch
Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is a dual threat quarterback. He’s thrown for 1,850 yards and ran for 854 yards and is responsible for 24 touchdowns.
Fitzgerald has struggled a bit with turnovers, throwing 10 interceptions. Five of those interceptions came in the last three games.
It will be interesting to see how Fitzgerald and the rest of the Bulldogs offense responds this week after the tough loss to Alabama. The sophomore is an essential part of the team and his performance could make or break a win.
Key Stat
Three. That’s how many points Mississippi State scored against Alabama last week. It was the team’s first game without a touchdown all season.
Alabama is the No. 1 team in the country for a reason so the loss wasn’t surprising, but the the Bulldogs were completely blown out. The Razorbacks put up 30 points against Alabama in their October 8th matchup.
That seems to portend well for Arkansas’ chances in this one since it did much better against a common opponent, but the Razorbacks have been impossible to read. They weren’t competitive against LSU last time out and have vacillated between an impressive team and an underwhelming one.
Free ATS Pick
The Bulldogs pulled off a huge upset of Texas A&M a couple weeks ago to knock them down from the College Football Playoff conversation. A win in this one wouldn’t be near that stature, but it would be another upset and move them close to a bowl game berth.
Mississippi State’s issue has been its defense, which is allowing nearly 32 points per game this season. Arkansas has shown the ability to put points on the board, but it was shut down last week by LSU.
This matchup is much easier, and the only thing that gives pause to Arkansas’ chances is the location. Mississippi State has played pretty well at home this season and should be able to stick close.
However, it seems as if the Razorbacks will have the talent advantage. This is a team that is really hard to figure out week-to-week, with most of its outcomes either a blowout win or loss. This one should actually be close since the matchup seems pretty fair, but the Razorbacks should throw it well enough to take advantage of Mississippi State’s suspect defense.
These teams struggled to score points last time out but each should have much more success here. Take the Razorbacks to win and cover in a shootout.
College Football Odds: Arkansas 41, Mississippi State 34
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