The Toledo Rockets have been overlooked all season long. With Western Michigan’s dominance, the Rockets have flown under the radar despite an 8-2 record and a win over the Broncos in the season finale would give Toledo the MAC West title. Before the Rockets prepare for what will be the conference’s game of the year next week, Toledo will need to get past the Ball State Cardinals in College Football Week 12 action.
Watch this Week 12 matchup live on Wednesday, November 16, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at the Glass Bowl. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ball State +21
Toledo -21
Odds Analysis
A season that started very promising for Ball State has since unraveled. The Cardinals were 3-1 after non-conference play, but have had trouble surviving in the tougher half of the conference ever since, going 1-5 ATS and 1-5 SU in MAC play as a result.
Toledo has been a great team for bettors this year. The Rockets are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS, but have had troubles in conference play. Toledo is 3-3 ATS in MAC play and has failed to cover in each of the three conference games in which it was an 11-point favorite or more.
Lookahead Situation
The Rockets know that the goal against Ball State will be to get the win and come out relatively unscathed. Toledo is a three-touchdown favorite for a reason in this one, it is a much better side than Ball State is.
Next week will be the real test for the Rockets, when they take on Western Michigan. Toledo’s loss to Western Michigan cost the Rockets the MAC West Title last season and an opportunity to play in Detroit for the conference championship. A win would be a bit of revenge and give Toledo a chance for another bit of payback. The MAC East representative will more than likely be an Ohio team that upset Toledo just a few weeks ago and gave the Rockets their only conference loss.
Matchup to Watch
Logan Woodside should have a field day against a Ball State defense that has had issues with solid quarterbacks this year. The Toledo quarterback has been stellar this season, completing over 70 percent of his passes for over 10 yards an attempt, and has a touchdown to interception ratio of 37 to 6. He has feasted on opposing defenses this season and has still yet to play a game in which he threw for less than three touchdowns.
He will be facing a defense that got rocked by Western Michigan and Central Michigan in recent weeks. Ball State allowed Zach Terrell to have his second-biggest day of the season two weeks ago and then gave up 468 yards through the air to Brogan Roback. This team has really struggled to stop opposing quarterbacks and might be in for a long night against the best QB in the conference.
Free ATS Pick
Ball State is going to need to establish the ground game if there is any hope of knocking off Toledo. James Gilbert has run for over 100 yards in five of his six games against MAC teams, but his longest run of the night against Eastern Michigan last week was 8 yards and that’s not going to work for the Cardinals.
Although Toledo should win this one handily, this is a pretty large spread. Toledo has only beat one opponent by three scores this season and tends to take its foot off the gas pedal whenever it thinks the game is in hand. That almost came back to bite the Rockets earlier in the season against Bowling Green, but has hurt people betting on them throughout the year. Accordingly, grab Ball State and the points.
College Football Odds: Rockets 41, Cardinals 24
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