After Hurricane Matthew postponed—and changed the venue of—this game, we’re finally going to see the Florida Gators in action against the Louisiana State Tigers here in Week 12. Florida needs the upset win to capture another SEC East title, but coming into play LSU has owned Florida, winning five of their last six meetings, covering the spread in four of them.
This matchup in Week 12 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Tiger Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida +14
Louisiana State -14
Odds Analysis
Odds makers and bettors alike are bullish on the Tigers at home over the Gators, but Florida has been double-digit underdogs just twice at LSU and are 1-1 SU and ATS in those games. The most recent of which was a loss in 2011 when the Tigers took care of business with ease, winning 41-11.
Perhaps more relevant to the discussion, LSU is 4-1 SU and ATS since the coaching change and have been a more reliable team—save for the game against Alabama—than the Gators. Florida’s driven by a dominating offense, making the under far more reliable of a bet than taking the Gators ATS.
Florida is just 3-5-1 ATS this season and only 1-3 ATS on the road, most recently dropping to Arkansas by 21-points after being the 3.5-point favorites.
Matchup to Watch
The Gators aren’t going to score much against LSU. The Tigers are one of the league’s best defenses and the Gators while doing pretty well offensively in Week 11, are still at the bottom in the SEC in total yards per game and scoring offense.
In fact, in their last two road games, they combined for 472 total yards and have eclipsed 24 points just once since September.
With Florida’s offensive output limited, the defense will need to do their thing to keep this game close and that brings us to the key matchup pinning the tandem of Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice against a strong defensive line for Florida.
Florida is allowing 111.7 rushing yards per game, ranked No. 10 in the nation in that category. The Gators are even better against the pass, but that’s not a strength of the Tigers anyway. If they’re going to put enough points on the board to cover the spread, it’ll come on the ground.
Last week against Arkansas, Gruice rushed for a team leading 252 yards. Fournette had just 98, but led in scores with three to Gruice’s two. It was the second straight games that Etling didn’t throw for a touchdown.
On the year, both runners are rushing for at least 6.9 yards per carry with Gruice up to 8.7 yards per carry. The two have combined for 17 rushing touchdowns.
The key to stopping the Tigers is stopping the rush. Alabama did that win Week 10 and won 10-0, keeping Fournette to just 35 yards and Guice to eight.
Key Stat
It’ll be hard for either offense to mount many long drives on Saturday. Neither team is prone to giving up big plays on defense while neither offense has the passing attack to move the ball too much in the air.
That’ll leave us with a number of third downs and Florida in particular will need to prevent LSU from converting in those situations. If the Tigers can extend a few drives early and grab a quick multiple possession lead, the Gators won’t be able to catch up with their offense.
Fortunately for the Gators, their defense has been one of the best in third down situation, keeping the opposition from converting 71-percent of the time.
Free ATS Pick
If you’re a fan of shootouts, this isn’t the game for you. This game will be ruled by defense, so a two touchdown swing is a lot more than it would be in a higher scoring affair. Take the Gators and the points over LSU. And take the under on the total.
Ultimately, look for Fournette and Gruice to manage better against Florida than they did against Alabama and stammer across the goal line a couple of times as they beat the Gators once again. Nevertheless, Florida’s defense is just behind Alabama’s for second in the SEC so the duo should still have their work cut out for them as they look to break through the line.
College Football Odds: Louisiana State 17, Florida 10
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