Even with three losses, the Florida State Seminoles are still ranked No. 18 in college football and are set for another conference victory over the Syracuse Orange in Week 12. The Orange. While FSU is far from the dominant team of a few years ago, they’re still well above the talent level of an Orange team ranked near the bottom of the Atlanta division standings, just above a Boston College team that took a 45-7 loss against the Seminoles last weekend.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 12 game is set for Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at the Carrier Dome.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida State -20.5
Syracuse +20.5
Odds Analysis
Always the underdog, Syracuse opened as nearly three touchdown dogs against Florida State despite hosting the Seminoles.
Florida State easily covered the spread last week, but the Seminoles haven’t covered the spread in back-to-back games all season long though they have done well ATS on the road. FSU has covered the spread in two of their last three road games, but came up short the last time they were away from home failing to cover a 6.5-point spread against North Carolina State, winning by just four, 24-20.
Meanwhile, the Orange’s struggles SU have extended ATS, too. Syracuse has yet to cover the spread in a game that they lost SU, despite being the underdog in every game since Week 1.
Matchup to Watch
Syracuse is one of the worst offenses on the ground, they struggle to stop the opposing offense on the ground or in the air and have been outscored by an average of nearly 11-points.
The Orange are a bad team and they’re facing a good team. That’s not a recipe for success.
While there’s little for Syracuse to hand its hat on in a match up with Florida State, there is one interesting matchup to keep an eye on.
While the Orange’s offense is amongst the worst in terms of points scored, they rank in the top half of college football in total yards and are No. 12 in passing yards per game with 321.9. They struggle to get the ball over the end zone, but can move the ball up and down the field.
In the end, Syracuse’s passing game against Florida State’s secondary is likely to be the difference maker in whether or not the Orange can cover the spread on Saturday. FSU’s secondary can be susceptible to strong passing attacks and can be beat deep.
One addition wrinkle to all of this is the health status of Eric Dungey. The QB has had a good year, but missed last game with Zack Mahoney filling in with little success.
Interestingly, the Seminoles have their own quarterback concerns with Deondre Francois having an issue with his shoulder, but the questions around Dungey are more significant with the Orange offense devoid of talent to survive the loss as they showed in Week 11’s loss to North Carolina State.
Last Meeting
Last year, the Seminoles were 16.5-point favorites and ended up winning by 24, beating the Orange 45-21.
In that game, Sean Maguire got the start and threw for 348-yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. So even if Francois doesn’t play, Maguire has shown he can fill in well against Syracuse.
Add in a 162-yards, three touchdown game for Jacques Patrick who is now the team’s third leading rusher in terms of touches, and things are looking up for FSU.
Regardless of who is under center, look for FSU to move the ball with ease. And you can expect another huge game from Dalvin Cook who has 1,242 yards and 13 touchdowns on the season.
On the other side, Syracuse’s offense was held to just 130 passing yards with the same quarterbacks that are on the roster this year. The passing game will be key for the Orange if they’re to cover and there’s not a good precedent set from last year.
Free ATS Pick
Syracuse has yet to cover the spread in a game they lost. There’s no way the Orange manage to upset the Seminoles so will the trends continue or can Syracuse cover?
Florida State isn’t the most prolific team ATS, but they’ve managed to cover more often than not and the Seminoles’ offense could really exploit an Orange defense littered with holes on the line and in the secondary.
Look for the Seminoles to come away with a big win here. NC State came away with a 15-point win and Clemson dominated them in route to a 54-point victory. FSU isn’t in Clemson’s class, but the Seminoles are better than NC State. Look for this spread to end somewhere between those two and a few touchdowns separating these teams sounds about right.
Look for an easy win for FSU and the Seminoles to cover the spread, particularly if Dungey is ruled out of the game.
College Football Odds: Florida State 39, Syracuse 17
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