After a huge loss to Iowa in a game where the Michigan’s offense went silent and the refs played a significant role, the Michigan Wolverines will look to bounce back in a big way when they return home for Week 12 action to host the Indiana Hoosiers. Michigan has beaten Indiana in 20 consecutive meetings.
Watch this regular season Week 12 matchup live on Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Michigan Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Indiana +23
Michigan -23
Over/Under 53.5
Odds Analysis
With Iowa recorded the upset over Michigan, the odds may be a bit more subdued than they otherwise would have been with the Wolverines favored by just over three touchdowns, right in line with the spread in Week 11 against Iowa.
Speaking of that game, the loss dropped them to 5-5 ATS this year and 3-5 ATS in their last eight games. Defensively, Michigan performed against the Hawkeyes, but the offense went silent, scoring just 13 points. Save for that game and a narrow 14-7 win over Wisconsin, the Wolverines have scored at least 32-points in every other game.
Indiana hasn’t exactly been a bettor’s paradise either. The Hoosiers have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games, the last three of which they found themselves as underdogs.
Injury Report
Wilton Speight is out after breaking his collarbone in the loss to Iowa. In his absence, John O’Korn will be called upon to carry the Wolverines to the Promised Land, going through the Hoosiers on Saturday.
O’Korn lost the starting gig to Speight in camp and is not a huge drop off in talent from Speight. The Houston transfer does have a 3,000 yard and 28 touchdown season behind him and is not foreign to running a college offense.
The senior is poised and won’t be rattled in his initial start of the season. We’ve only seen him in this offense for little glimpses, but he’s 13-for-18 with 114 yards and two scores in his limited action.
He’s loaded with weapons at his disposal, too, and has the safety net of a world-class defense should he falter so the pressure isn’t solely on his shoulders.
Look for O’Korn to have a nice game with a touchdown or two to some combination of Amara Darboh, Jake Butt and Jehu Chesson. The three have a combined 12 touchdown receptions and 1,652 yards.
Of course, the ground game has been better than the passing attack for Michigan all year long anyway. The Wolverines are in the middle of the pack in passing yards, but are No. 19 in rushing.
Iowa took care of De’Veon Smith in the Week 11 loss, but the senior back had a combined six touchdowns in his previous three games.
Smith, alongside freshman back Chris Evans, sophomore Karan Higdon and senior Ty Isaac offers a four-headed monster, each with 400 or more rushing yards and each able to carry the offense should he be called upon to do so.
Letdown Spot
Last week’s loss to Iowa was the letdown, Saturday Michigan will be extra motivated, coming out of the gate angry.
If not for that loss, however, this could have been the letdown as the Wolverines have Ohio State on deck, but now that they’ve got the Iowa blemish on their record, they desperately need strong showings in both games to close out the regular season. That means a big win over Indiana.
A year ago, the Hoosiers played Michigan very close, ultimately falling 48-41 in overtime after entering the game as 12.5-point pups at home. The spread will be much larger on Saturday with Michigan at home.
With plenty of motivation to prevent this from being overlooked and with enough history to show the Wolverines’ dominance in this matchup, there’s plenty of reason to expect Michigan to come out fast and hard in this game.
As for the matchup itself, Michigan has the edge any way you slice it. Their offense is strong even with O’Korn under center. He’s got De’Veon Smith to carry the ball and a number of weapons to throw to including Darboh and Butt. Defensively, this is the best team in the nation based on yards allowed, and on special teams do we need to say anything besides: Jabrill Peppers? Oh, and Jim Harbaugh is the perfect guy to get this team pumped and ready to play after a tough loss—both in terms of the final score against Iowa and the loss of Speight.
Free ATS Pick
O’Korn will fill in nicely for Speight against Indiana’s pass defense that’s allowing 235.8 passing yards per game. The Hoosiers have also allowed the third most passing touchdowns in the Big Ten.
Add in a heavy dose of Smith and a sprinkling of Evans and this Michigan offense will bounce back to form. After all, they’re averaging 44.5 points per game.
On the other side, even in the loss to Iowa the defense played a big role for the Wolverines. Michigan allowed just 230 total yards and stayed in the game despite the offense completely disappearing. The defense will stop Richard Lagow and Devin Redding with the later possible reaching the end zone once, but even so, look for a huge win for a determined and angry Michigan team. Michigan covers.
College Football Odds: Michigan 45, Indiana 13
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