The Baylor Bears’ season has gone downhill in a hurry, and now a key injury will test their mettle the rest of the way. The Bears were 6-0 a few weeks ago but have lost three straight and are home underdogs in their Week 12 matchup with the Kansas State Wildcats.
Baylor isn’t favored because it must replace starting quarterback Seth Russell, who has been lost for the season due to injury. The Bears were nationally ranked and even in the College Football Playoff hunt just a few games ago but now must get a win to stop from reeling.
Watch this regular season Week 12 matchup live on Sunday, November 19, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at McLane Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas State - 2.5
Baylor +2.5
Odds Analysis
The Wildcats are road favorites and that’s not deterring the bettors, as more than 83 percent of the early action has come in on Kansas State. Baylor has been the stronger program in recent years but the bettors see the slide continuing.
Kansas State is 5-4 straight up and 3-5-1 against the spread this season. The Wildcats have covered twice in four tries away from home.
Baylor is 6-3 straight up and 3-6 against the spread. Baylor is 2-3 attempting to cover at home this season.
Player to Watch
True freshman Zach Smith is the new starting quarterback of the Baylor Bears, replacing Russell who is out for the season with an ankle injury. Smith is 13-of-35 for 272 yards and two touchdowns this season.
Smith had an impressive high school career, throwing for more than 10,000 yards but this will be a big test for the young quarterback. His performance will make or break the rest of the season for the Bears.
Russell was 152-of-278 passing for 2,126 yards with 20 touchdowns against eight interceptions this season. He was a big part of an offense that is averaging 38.0 points per game and will be sorely missed. It seems likely the Bears would have been favored if he was still in the fold.
Key Stat
107. That’s how many points Baylor’s defense has allowed in the last two games. Last week against Oklahoma, the team fell 45-24.
The defense started the season strong, allowing just 30 points over the first three games but has really struggled lately, losing three in a row coming into this one.
Kansas State’s offense isn’t particularly high-scoring, averaging 31.1 points a game but the defense will still need to play better to get a win this weekend. The Bears may opt to try a more ball-control approach on offense since they have an inexperienced quarterback and a defense which has been shaky of late.
Free ATS Pick
Teams are usually known quantities once you get nine games into a schedule, but the injury to Russell makes Baylor a wild card. The Bears have a strong running game and will undoubtedly rely on it in this one.
Kansas State is favored, but has been outgained by quite a large margin on the season. This one looks to be a case of bettors overreacting to recent difficulties faced by Baylor. The fact is, the Bears are at home and have more talent.
The question is if Smith can hold up as the quarterback despite no experience. At last he has had all season to prepare and can get a lot of help from the running game. Even though Baylor has an issue at quarterback, it is talented enough running the ball to make it easier for Smith.
The Bears should be able to scratch and claw out a victory although it won’t be in their usual high-flying style.
College Football Odds: Baylor 23, Kansas State 21
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