Neither the Kent State Golden Flashes or the Bowling Green Falcons can make a bowl, but that doesn’t mean pride won’t be on the line when these two teams square off in College Football Week 12 mid-week action. These teams have each looked better than their records indicate as of late and have been playing quality football against the best teams in the conference. A win here would give one of these two teams momentum and hope that next season will be much better.
Watch this Week 12 matchup live on Tuesday, November 15, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Doyt L. Perry Stadium. This game will be broadcast on ESPNU.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kent State -2.5
Bowling Green +2.5
Odds Analysis
Kent State is sitting at 3-7 SU and 6-4 ATS on the year. The Golden Flashes are 3-2 ATS on the road and have played four of their six MAC games over the total.
The Falcons finally got an FBS win last week against Akron as a 10.5-point underdog and that was just their third cover of the season. Bowling Green has been abysmal against the number at home this year with a 0-4 ATS mark on home turf.
Key Stat
Bowling Green’s defense played well enough to help the Falcons to get the win last week, but this is still one of the worst defenses in the country. The Falcons are third-worst in the FBS in points allowed, giving up 43.4 PPG, and opponents have been able to move the ball on them all year long.
The Falcons have given up 8.55 yards per pass and opposing quarterbacks have thrown 29 touchdowns against their secondary. They allowed 8.2 yards per pass attempt in the win over Akron but were helped tremendously by an Akron team that was in the giving spirit. The Zips turned the ball over six times and that was instrumental to Bowling Green’s win.
That defense’s numbers should improve against a Kent State team that has had some real issues moving the ball and putting points on the board. The Golden Flashes don’t have much of an identity, but the one thing that’s certain is that Nick Holley is going to be heavily involved.
Player to Watch
Holley leads Kent State in passing and rushing and will be the focal point of the Golden Flashes offense. Although he didn’t throw a pass until conference play started, he has been one of the busiest quarterbacks in the country since then. Holley has run the ball at least 22 times in every MAC game and has picked up 100 yards on the ground in five of the six.
Where Holley has struggled is with throwing the ball. He has thrown an interception in three of his last four games and has tossed just one touchdown in each of the last five weeks. Holley is completing just a shade over 50.4 percent of his passes on the season, but his yards per attempt of 5.85 is abysmal. If he can become more of a passing threat that would help Kent State’s chances immensely, but he has yet to develop that talent.
Free ATS Pick
Bowling Green has tried to be a passing team this season, but after throwing 22 interceptions through its first nine games, the Falcons decided to keep the ball on the ground against Akron. Donovan Wilson and Fred Coppet responded in a big way with the added workload, carrying the ball for 235 yards and three touchdowns between the two of them.
The Falcons won’t be able to run the ball as well against a stout Golden Flashes run defense, but should be able to do enough on offense to pull off the upset as a home underdog. Bowling Green has looked better and better with each week and should end their season on a high note these last few weeks.
College Football Odds: Falcons 31, Golden Flashes 24
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