The Louisville Cardinals are favored on Thursday night as they visit the Houston Cougars on ESPN. The Cardinals got some help last week in their attempt to make the College Football Playoff with three of the four top teams losing so Louisville is now very much in the race. They get a tough test on Thursday night in this Week 12 matchup as they face a Houston team that is 8-2 on the season. “We just need to win our games. We can't think about that right now; (College Football Playoff) we just have to play Houston.” Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson said. These teams met last season at Louisville with the Cougars pulling out a 34-31 win.
Watch this regular season Week 12 matchup live on Thursday, November 17, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at TDECU Stadium.
Odds Analysis
Oddsmakers were waiting on official word as to whether or not Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. will play. All indications are that Ward will be ready but there is a huge drop in production if he is out of the game. He didn’t even play the entire game last week against Tulane and still had three touchdowns. He has accounted for 25 total touchdowns this season.
The Cardinals are going to be favored in this game regardless of whether or not Ward plays but in the unlikely event that Ward misses this game the line would be at least 7 points higher.
Matchup to Watch
If the Cougars are to have any chance of winning this game they have to find a way to contain Lamar Jackson. The Louisville quarterback leads an offense that is first in the country in total yards per game at 583.2 and first in points per game at 49.6. Jackson is the leading candidate to win the Heisman Trophy as he is throwing for 313.2 yards per game.
The Cougars have been very good on defense as they are 9th best in the country in fewest yards allowed at 303.3 per game. They are 25th in the country in points allowed at 21.3 per contest. The concern is that they are just 41st against the pass.
The Cougars played well on defense last week against Tulane led by linebacker Tyus Bowser who had three sacks, 11 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and two quarterback hurries. It was the first action for Bowser since he got hurt against Connecticut in late September. "I had that mindset I wanted to come out and dominate," Bowser said. "Being out (five) games I felt like I needed to come back and do my job and bring back the energy that we had when we started the year with Oklahoma."
Key Stat
The Cougars had both for their top quarterback suffering injuries last week with Greg Ward Jr. leaving the game with an injured shoulder while backup
Kyle Postma suffered an arm injury. Ward came back into the game after Postma got hurt so there is a good chance he will play on Thursday.
The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series. The Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Cardinals are 29-13-1 ATS in their last 43 road games. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the AAC. The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the ACC. The Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Looking at the total, the Over is 6-1 in the Cardinals last 7 road games. The Under is 8-3 in the Cougars last 11 home games.
Free ATS Pick
I think with Bowser back in the lineup the Cougars can at least slow down Jackson and the Cardinals so I will take this game under the total.
College Football Odds: Cardinals 28, Cougars 17
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