For the Maryland Terrapins, the Nebraska Cornhuskers seem like a bit of a reprieve, but the Week 12 matchup still heavily favors the home team with Nebraska the next ranked team getting a chance to beat up on a Terps team that has little confidence left. Maryland looked fine against the lesser teams early on, but have been vastly overmatched more often than not in Big Ten action.
This contest in Week 12 of the regular season will go down Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Tom Osborne Field at Memorial Stadium.
Odds Analysis
After a demoralizing loss to Ohio State in Week 10, it looked like the Huskers’ season was going down the tubes in the first half against the Golden Gophers in Week 11, but Nebraska bounced back to beat Minnesota with a strong second half.
It looks like the Nebraska momentum is back. Before the Ohio State game, the Cornhuskers were 5-2-1 ATS though they haven’t beaten the spread at home since Week 2. Maryland, on the other hand, is in the midst of a three game losing streak SU and ATS. They’ve lost five of six and have failed to cover in all but three games this season.
This is the fifth straight game the Terps enter as pups and could very well be the fourth straight they fail to cover.
Injury Report
Maryland already has the odds stacked up against it and meanwhile Perry Hills, Lorenzo Harrison and Ty Johnson are all out or questionable.
Even with all three on the field, the offense was below average, but Harrison is out indefinitely due to suspension despite 7.2 yards per carry and Johnson has been dealing with an injury and managed just 21 yards on eight carries against Ohio State. That could very well leave Tyrell Pigrome as the leading rusher and he’s touched the ball 60 times with only 229 yards.
Under center, Hills hasn’t been that good, but this team is more about the run anyway, but he left each of the last two games due to his shoulder, giving way to Caleb Rowe and we saw how well that’s played out.
This could be a game where the team relies on Pigrome under center if Hill is out and while he can run the ball reasonably well compared to Rowe, his upside is limited for Saturday’s showdown. After all, this is the team that managed just one third down conversion all game long in Week 11’s loss.
Ultimately, the only piece of good news for the Maryland offense is that Nebraska’s defense while solid, it’s amongst the best in the game like their last two opponents.
Player to Watch
Short answer: Tommy Armstrong.
The quarterback was 4-for-15 in the blowout loss against Ohio State and bounced back at the end of the Minnesota game, running for game winning touchdown. He also did well avoiding turnovers in the win.
Nebraska has an average offense, but the Maryland defense had Ohio State and Michigan seemingly moving the ball down the field at-will the last two weeks. They, at times, looked like they weren’t even on the field.
Sure, the Huskers don’t have the same offense as the Buckeyes and sure, Armstrong isn’t J.T. Barrett, but pass defense was supposed to be near average for Maryland with the rush being the biggest trouble spot. Lately, it’s been both.
Provided Armstrong is healthy and able to go despite his head injury, the QB provides a solid arm and a second option to Terrell Newby on the ground. If Armstrong plays, this is a blowout win with both him and Newby running wild. If it’s Ryker Fyfe under center, Maryland still loses handily, but it’s a bit closer as most of the offense lies on Newby’s shoulders.
Free ATS Pick
Nebraska may look like a walk in the park compared to the Ohio State and Michigan teams that absolutely crushed the Terps in back-to-back weeks, but Nebraska is still a ranked opponent and Maryland is still just 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games.
Maryland’s defense will look better than they did the last two weeks and the offense may finally reach the end zone again, but there’s not enough firepower on offense to expect the Terps to explode even if the defense isn’t up to the level of the Buckeyes or Wolverines. Nebraska still has a top-end defense and the offense is significantly better—and more balanced than Maryland.
In the end, somebody may be able to carry the ball into the end zone, but given the Huskers’ strong second half against Minnesota, this should be a game where we see the Cornhuskers get back on track. Take Nebraska to cover at home.
College Football Odds: Nebraska 30, Maryland 13
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