The Cincinnati Bearcats’ offense has all but disappeared over the last two games as the team’s combined to score six points. On the flip side, the Memphis Tigers has scored 93 points in their last two games, but both programs come into Week 12 in desperate need of a win. The Tigers have dropped three of their last four while the Bearcats are winless in their last three.
Watch this regular season Week 12 matchup live on Friday, November 18, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Nippert Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Memphis +7
Cincinnati -7
Odds Analysis
Opening at a 7.5-point advantage for Memphis, the spread didn’t take long to move down to a mere touchdown differential between these two programs given Cincinnati gets to play host on Friday night.
Neither team has been a good bet this season, at least compared to the spread. The Bearcats have lost seven of their last eight games ATS and the Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven. Overall, the Bearcats at 2-8 ATS and the Tigers are 3-7.
The total has been a better bet in Cincinnati’s games. The under has paid out in five straight Bearcat games and eight of 10 this year.
Last Meeting
Last year, the Tigers won the game, but they fell against the spread as these two teams dominated the total in what turned out to be a high scoring affair.
Don’t necessarily look for a repeat given Cincinnati’s woeful offense that’s scoring just 18.8 PPG and has been even worse of late.
Nevertheless, that game is an interesting case study between these teams as the Bearcats covered the spread yet again, making it the seventh time in their last eight head-to-head meetings.
Cincinnati actually out gained the Tigers, 752 yards to 570 yards, largely on the power of a prolific passing game that threw for 620 yards and four touchdowns. Of those yards, 557 came from Hayden Moore. Gunner Kiel added 63 while going 7-for-11.
The biggest difference, however, is that Moore threw a pair of interceptions and Kiel added one of his own. Memphis took advantage of the turnovers, had a solid offense game of their own, and ran effectively gaining 4.3 yards per carry.
Cincinnati needs another huge game for Moore, but he’s coming off a poor game against UCF and hasn’t thrown a touchdown since September while Keil had a couple good games in October, but has been equally ineffective in November. The Bearcats offense, as a result, has fallen completely off the table with six points in two games and 19 in the last three games.
Look-ahead Situation
With two games left and a 4-6 record, the Bearcats need to win both of its last two games to go bowling. That’s a quite a long shot given their recent 24-3 loss to the UCF Knights.
UCF’s defense has been pretty good, but it was Cincinnati’s second straight game were a field goal was what separated the Bearcats from a shutout.
Both Memphis and Tulsa—who they play in Week 13—provide a huge challenge, but they get to take on the Tigers at home so it should be the easier of the two games, but it’s still quite a mismatch.
Cincinnati needs to put the idea of a bowl game out of its mind heading into Friday night and that this one game, one series and one snap at a time if they’re going to get the upset.
The offense absolutely needs to come around, and the Memphis defense at least provides an opportunity. Despite that, confidence is shot and in sports confidence is the biggest hurdle. The Bearcats will need to put the last few games out of their minds and ignore the future to have a chance.
Free ATS Pick
The dream of a Cincinnati bowl-bid ends on Friday night. The Bearcats offense has been terrible and while the Tigers allowed Cincinnati to score 46 last year with some of the same personnel, this team is missing confidence.
Count of the Bearcats at least reaching the end zone for the first time in three weeks, but to score enough to compete with Memphis seems like a real longshot. The Tigers aren’t exactly the pillars of consistency, but they have scored at least 24-points in every game this year and are averaging 39.2 PPG.
With Cincinnati’s defense little more than league average and their offense little threat at all, look for plenty of points for the Tigers much like they were able to do against the Bearcats last year, but look for the Cincinnati side of the equation to be a little bit light this year, even with the Bearcats at home.
College Football Odds: Memphis 38, Cincinnati 20
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