The Miami Hurricanes are back on track after a rough four game stretch wiped out their record. Following losses to Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, the Hurricanes have recorded back-to-back wins against Pittsburgh and Virginia and are now positioned to hit the road in Week 12, taking on the North Carolina State Wolfpack who themselves have just gotten back in the win column after their own four game skid.
This contest in Week 12 of the regular season will go down Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 12:30 p.m. ET at Carter-Finley Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami (FL)-3
North Carolina State +3
Odds Analysis
A couple of wins was enough to earn back some of the odd maker’s confidence in Miami who opened as three point favorites on the road over the Wolfpack. As the small spread would indicate, this game should be a nail bitter.
While the Wolfpack is just 5-5 SU and 1-4 in their last five games, North Carolina State has managed to cover the spread most of the time, going 7-3 ATS and 3-2 ATS during those last five games.
As to the total, the under is 5-1 in NC State’s last six games while the offense has tanked. The under has also been a pretty good bet in most Miami games. The offense has started to come around a bit for the Hurricanes though and that’s led to a bounce back and two straight wins SU and ATS after four straight losses both SU and ATS.
Player to Watch
Miami’s a strong defensive team, ranking No. 13 in points allowed per game at 19.3. They also sport a strong passing attack behind Brad Kaaya, but it’s the rushing attack—namely Mark Walton—that’s worth keeping an eye on.
North Carolina State has one of the better lines in college football and offer a real challenge for any team looking to do damage on the ground. Allowing the fourth fewest rushing yards per game, the Wolfpack have been nearly as inconsistent as Miami, but have been able to consistently stifle the run.
Meanwhile, Walton is a key player for Miami. The Hurricanes need a ground game to complement what Kaaya is trying to do in the air and Walton’s success directly mirror’s the team’s success—or failure.
In the Hurricane’s last two wins, Walton has rushed for at least 111 yards in each, combining for 236. He also scored two touchdowns. Prior to that, he had five straight games of 82 or fewer yards, all but one was a loss. He also scored just a single touchdown in those five games.
Overall, Walton is averaging 51 yards and a quarter of a touchdown in losses, but 113.5 yards and 1.67 touchdowns per game in wins.
Key Stat
Thanks in part to NC State’s strong rushing defense, they’ve been able to limit third down conversions, ranked No. 24 in the nation with a .342 third down conversion rate allowed.
Miami is quite a bit off the pace at a .391 rate, ranking right in the middle of the pack in college football.
Given those stats, it would stand to reason that the Wolfpack may be in line to extend a few more drives and thus, could get the upset, particularly with the hometown crowd and a bit confidence building win behind them.
As always, there are two sides to every story, but the offensive stats paint a very similar picture with the Wolfpack converting on 43.8-percent of their chances on third downs compared to Miami converting 37.6-percent.
Free ATS Pick
This really is a pretty even matchup. Miami should be the better team, but the Wolfpack have had a very similar season. When things are this even, give me the home team and the extra three points.
Both of these teams have shown an extended stretch where they’ve struggled and both have since shown that they’ve bounced back.
Overall, look for North Carolina State’s strength against the run to come into play, forcing Kaaya to do too much and that is ultimately when he can get into trouble.
Beyond just the win over Syracuse on Saturday, the Wolfpack showed up against Florida State in their last home game, too, covering the spread with a narrow loss. That’s two encouraging games in a row.
College Football Odds: North Carolina State 24, Miami 23
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