The Tennessee Volunteers absorbed a tough stretch last month when they lost three straight games after a hot start. They have bounced back of late and will aim for a third consecutive victory in a faceoff with the Missouri Tigers in Week 12 of the college football season.
Missouri is a former SEC power which has struggled badly this season and will be a big underdog. The Volunteers may not be as good as their former top-10 ranking would have suggested, but they are still the better team and should come away victorious.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 12 game is set for Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Neyland Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Missouri +15
Tennessee -15
Over/Under 67
Odds Analysis
Tennessee will have to win this one by more than two touchdowns to cover, and still the betting public is backing it heavily to do so. More than 89 percent of the early money is taking the Volunteers to cover.
The scoring total is pretty high as the oddsmakers forecast a solid amount of offensive explosion in this matchup, and the “over” has been the more popular pick.
The Volunteers are 7-3 straight up this season and 5-5 against the spread. They have been favored in all but two games and have covered in five of those eight matchups.
Missouri is just 3-7 straight up this season and has gone 4-6 against the spread. The Tigers have covered just one time in five times as the underdog and are 0-4 trying to cover the spread away from home.
Player to Watch
Josh Dobbs - The Tennessee quarterback is the key to the Volunteers’ offense. Dobbs is a threat both in the passing game and on the ground. He has completed 156-of-263 passes for 2,092 yards with 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Dobbs is also the team’s leading rusher with 116 carries for 470 yards and seven touchdowns. The Volunteers are averaging 412 total yards and 33.8 points per game in large part due to Dobbs.
He threw more interceptions than touchdowns in all three of the team’s losses and has thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in every win, so the way Dobbs goes usually dictates the team’s success.
Key Stat
Seven. Consecutive losses to BCS conference opponents for Missouri before finally getting over the hump with a win over Vanderbilt last time out. The Tigers have been a very successful program in recent years but has taken a big step back in 2016.
Missouri had a five-game losing streak earlier this year which included blowout defeats to LSU and Florida and then losses to Middle Tennessee State, Kentucky and South Carolina.
It’s fair to wonder how much motivation this team has. The Tigers aren’t going to make a bowl game and are big underdogs, so if Tennessee can get up early it could lead to some disenfranchisement on the Missouri sideline.
Free ATS Pick
The Volunteers have been in a lot of close games this season and don’t have a dominant point differential. They could be susceptible to an upset if a team is slightly less talented, but the gulf seems too big in this one, especially with Tennessee playing this game at home.
Missouri will aim to get back to past success next season, but this has been a forgettable campaign. It should continue with a loss in this one, although the spread is a bit too high. The Tigers should be able to stay close enough for the cover despite the loss. The “under” is the right call as this one may not be the most well-played game. Missouri can come up with enough turnovers to stick in this one but Tennessee will pick up win No. 8 on the season.
College Football Odds: Tennessee 34, Missouri 24
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