An upset victory last year as the Ohio State Buckeyes on edge as they head to Michigan to take on the Michigan State Spartans in Week 12 action on Saturday afternoon. The Buckeyes remain in the hunt for a playoff spot and are in need of a huge win piggy backing on a couple dominating wins over the last two weeks.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 12 game is set for Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Spartan Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ohio State -21.5
Michigan State +21.5
Odds Analysis
The huge win a couple weeks ago by Ohio State over Nebraska has been a bit of a catalyst after rough games against Penn State and Northwestern. The Buckeyes are now back in form and head into East Lansing as the favorites by more than three touchdowns.
That’s quite a hefty margin for a road team, but Ohio State has been dominating the opposition the last two weeks, including a 59-point win over a team that beat Michigan State last month.
In general, neither team is a particularly great beat ATS, but Ohio State is over .500 ATS now after their four game ATS losing skid came to a half when the calendar flipped to November. The Spartans, however, have just three ATS victories all year.
Last Meeting
Just a year ago, Michigan State shocked an undefeated Ohio State team with a 17-14 victory, holding the Buckeyes to their fewest points scored of the season.
A stingy defense has been a staple for Ohio State here in 2016, but the offense has also been a major boast with J.T. Barrett having a great season. Barrett has completed 64.7-percent of his pass attempts and has a remarkable 23:4 touchdown to interception ratio. Barrett also adds an additional threat to run alongside Mike Weber and Curtis Samuel.
Last year, the Spartan defense completely shut down Barrett both on the ground and in the air. He went just 9-for-16 with 46 passing yards and added 44 rushing. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for just 33-yards in the loss. His next lowest yardage total last year was 101.
While it seems highly unlikely that the Spartans will be able to hold Ohio State to 14 points, 132 total yards or just five first downs again, Michigan State does still have a solid defensive team according to yardage stats.
Regardless, Ohio State won’t be overlooking the Spartans this year and far and away the better team. And, they’ll be looking for revenge.
Player to Watch
With Barrett being shut down last year against the Spartans, he’s the key player to watch this time around.
We can count on the Ohio State defense keeping Michigan State’s offense in check. They only allowed 17-points last year and the Spartans rank No. 84 in college football with 26.1 points per game. They scored just six earlier this year against Wisconsin, a team ranked one place behind Ohio State in total points allowed per game.
So, here we are back on Barrett. The junior QB has had quite an interesting career. He’s put together a run of two games where he’s passed for 543 yards and six touchdowns without throwing an interception. In fact, his last interception came on October 15. He’s been an accurate passer and that should continue, but will his futility last time he faced the Spartans get in his head?
Ohio State needs him to produce. Interestingly, Michigan State has been the Buckeyes’ biggest threat over the last few years and while Michigan is next week, the Spartans could be a surprise threat again given the history.
In Ohio State’s worst two games—the two game stretch against Penn State and Northwestern—Barrett threw for just one touchdown, though his yardage total was still reasonably high.
Free ATS Pick
Between the college football playoffs being in site and the desire to avenging last season’s devastating loss, the Buckeyes have plenty of motivation.
Michigan State has played Ohio State tough over the years, but they’re just 1-6 in conference and have seen an inconsistent offense and a defense that, while able to limit yardage, has struggled at times keeping points off the board—with the exception of their latest win over Rutgers, of course.
Given the stats, this game doesn’t look like it means too much. It should be an easy win for Ohio State, but after losing last year’s match up that meant everything, there’s that extra level for Ohio State.
Look for the Buckeyes to come out of the gate strong and be relentless in their pursuit for revenge. Barrett has a big game on Saturday and the Buckeyes go on to a commanding victory setting up a much watch showdown against Michigan in the final week of the regular season.
College Football Odds: Ohio State 38, Michigan State 13
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
