The Oklahoma State Cowboys have destiny in their hands when it comes to the race to the Big 12 title. However, oddsmakers don’t see them pulling it out. Oklahoma State has only lost once in conference play but are road underdogs in this Week 12 college football matchup against the TCU Horned Frogs.
The Cowboys have racked up a bunch of narrow wins this season, and the belief is that they have been lucky instead of good in those. Even though the Horned Frogs are only 5-4 overall and .500 in conference play, they are still the favorites in this one.
Watch this regular season Week 12 matchup live on Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oklahoma State +4
TCU -4
Over/Under 70.5
Odds Analysis
The oddsmakers’ thoughts diverge from the teams’ records, but the betting public feels like Oklahoma State is not getting enough credit. The Cowboys are getting four points and the gamblers like that as 77 percent of the early action has gone toward them to cover.
The scoring total is high as a shootout is expected and it has been deemed not high enough as 70 percent of the money has been jumping on the “over” for what could be a highly entertaining showdown.
Oklahoma State is 8-2 straight up this season and 5-5 against the spread. The Cowboys have played well as an underdog, covering in two of three tries.
TCU is 5-4 straight up but just 2-7 against the spread this year. The Horned Frogs are favored for the seventh time in this one but have covered only one time previously. TCU has not played well at home, as it has failed to cover in any of its five home contests.
Player to Watch
Mason Rudolph - The Oklahoma State quarterback has been slinging it lately. He’s thrown for 852 yards and seven touchdowns in the last two games.
He comes into this matchup on a high note after edging out Texas Tech last week, 45-44. Rudolph has completed 234 of 357 passes this season for 3,384 yards and 24 touchdowns with four interceptions.
Oklahoma State is averaging 41.3 points per game in large part behind Rudolph. He faces a TCU pass defense which has been hot and cold this year. If the Cowboys can get the aerial attack going, they can certainly pull out this upset.
Matchup to Watch
TCU running back Kyle Hicks vs the Oklahoma State front seven. Hicks is coming off a career game last week against Baylor where he ran for 192 yards and five touchdowns in TCU’s 62-22 win.
He has carried the ball 130 times for 789 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. The Horned Frogs are averaging nearly 200 yards per game on the ground this year and if Hicks does this again his team will be in good position.
The Cowboys defense, led by defensive tackle Vincent Taylor, is allowing 198.4 rushing yards a game. Against the pass-heavy Texas Tech Red Raiders last week, the defense allowed just 142 yards on the ground. TCU has made some mistakes through the air this season and would love to dominate on the ground to make it easier on the passing game.
Free ATS Pick
If Oklahoma State wins this game and then upsets Oklahoma in the regular season finale, it will capture the Big 12 title. The last one will undoubtedly be tough, but the conference championship may not be on the line if the Cowboys can’t pull off this upset.
It’s interesting that an underachieving TCU team is favored in this one, and the oddsmakers are higher on them than the betting public, which is choosing Oklahoma State at a high clip. Go with the bookmakers in this one.
The Horned Frogs’ season hasn’t been pretty, but it has a group talented enough to win this one at home in a classic. However, Oklahoma State will sneak out the cover. The “under” is the choice as this spread is too high.
College Football Odds: TCU 35, Oklahoma State 34
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