Western Kentucky has been the only Conference USA team that’s cause the Old Dominion Monarchs any trouble and that should continue as the regular season starts to wind towards a close. The Monarchs will travel to Boca Raton for their second to last regular season game 5-1 conference record at stack to take on the Florida Atlantic Owls in Week 12.
Watch this regular season Week 12 matchup live on Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 6 p.m. ET at FAU Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Old Dominion -9
Florida Atlantic +9
Over/Under 63
Odds Analysis
The Monarchs are the favorites on the road and we’ve seen the spread grow in support of Old Dominion after opening at eight. The total has stayed stagnant.
Last week, the Monarchs topped Southern Mississippi for their fifth win in six conference games and nabbed a 16-point victory despite going in as the underdog.
The win was the team’s sixth in its last seven days and Old Dominion has managed to cover spread in all seven wins on the year, but have failed to cover in all three losses.
The home team in this showdown comes into action having won back-to-back games, but neither Rice nor Texas El Paso offer a real challenge. Overall, the Owls are 3-7 SU and 2-7-1 ATS.
Last Meeting
Florida Atlantic narrowly beat out the Monarchs for the win when these two teams met a season ago, but Old Dominion covered the spread. The Monarchs have now covered in both games against the Owls.
FAU won that game by dominating the ground game. They rushed for 248 yards and three touchdowns with three different players carrying the ball into the end zone. At the same time, the Owl defense held the Monarchs to just 1.6 yards per carry.
It’s unlikely the Owls will be able to replicate that success on Saturday. Florida Atlantic has a respectable rushing attack, but defensively, they’re allowing 224.3 rushing yards per game. Old Dominion has done a good job moving the ball on the ground with Ray Lawry and Jeremy Cox each rushing for at least six yards a carry.
Look for the Monarchs to win the battle on the ground and that skews things heavily. Last year, they out gained the Owls in the air by 99 yards and won the turnover battle two to one.
Key Stat
Old Dominion tied for first in the nation in turnover margin at 15, ahead of such dominant teams as Ohio State, Michigan and even Alabama.
The Monarchs defense has done well forcing turnovers. They’ve nabbed nine interceptions and an impressive 12 fumble recoveries. The real storyline here, however, is the offense’s ability to hold onto the ball. They’ve turned the ball over just six times, giving up four interceptions and fumbling twice.
For a team like Old Dominion that doesn’t stand out in any facet of the game, their ability to dominant the turnover battle has led to a rather strong 34.8 points per game despite an average at best ranking based on total yards.
Flipping the tables a bit, Florida Atlanta hasn’t been bad when it comes to turnovers, but they’ve been average. They’ve forced 15 turnovers and have given up 16, more than doubling up the Monarchs in both fumbles and interceptions.
Free ATS Pick
Losses aside, Florida Atlantic has been able to keep games close this year, but they still manage to end up on the losing side both SU and ATS. They also lost big against the most challenge Conference USA team on the schedule in a 52-3 loss to Western Kentucky. Old Dominion is second in the East to the Hilltoppers and could come close to a similarly lopsided final. On the flip side, the Monarch’s issues ATS on the road are concerning, but ultimately, this should be a solid win for the Monarchs.
The Owls are ranked in the bottom of the sport in points scored and points allowed and are averaging differential greater than the nine-points at 12.1. On top of that, the Monarchs are a very strong offensive team and a team that does not make many mistakes.
Look for Old Dominion to take advantage of turnovers by FAU, and you can count on David Washington, Lawry and Cox each to have big games against a woeful Owl defense.
College Football Odds: Old Dominion 45, Florida Atlantic 20
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