The Pac-12 South has three teams still in contention, but the Utah Utes have destiny in their own hands. If they win the final two games they pick up the conference title. The big showdown comes against Colorado in the season finale, but first they must take care of business against the Oregon Ducks in Week 12 of the college football season.
Oregon was expected to be in contention in the Pac-12 North but has failed miserably at that this year, entering with a horrific 3-7 record. Utah is a heavy home favorite and has the talent to take care of business and stay on track in the conference.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 12 game is set for Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 2 p.m. ET at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oregon +13.5
Utah -13.5
Over/Under 70.5
Odds Analysis
Utah must pick up this win by two touchdowns in order to cover, which isn’t an easy task for a team which doesn’t always blow away opponents. The bettors aren’t dissuaded, though, as Utah has gotten nearly 90 percent of the early money to cover this spread.
The scoring total is high because the Ducks both score a bunch and can’t stop anybody. About two-thirds of the action is hitting the “over” as many gamblers are expecting a shootout.
Utah is 8-2 straight up this season and 6-4 against the spread. The Utes have covered four times out of seven as the favorite.
Oregon has underperformed expectations and is just 1-7-2 against the spread. The Ducks are 0-2-2 as the underdog against the spread and will aim to finally cover.
Player to Watch
Utah quarterback Troy Williams is coming off a big game last week. In the 49-26 win over Arizona State, Williams threw for 296 yards and four touchdowns.
The junior will have plenty of momentum this week as his team hosts Oregon. The Ducks are allowing 292.7 yards through the air so Williams seems to be in line for a big game if needed. Sometimes Utah will be content running the ball, but the game will dictate how this one plays out.
Williams has thrown for 2,184 yards with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions.
Key Stat
43.5. That’s how many points a game this Oregon defense is allowing right now. The Ducks have struggled against both the ground and passing game this season, allowing 535.7 total yards a game.
The Ducks have another tough test this week in Utah, who scored 125 points in its last three games. For Oregon to have a chance in this win, the defense will have to find a way to slow down Williams because the Oregon offense will have its work cut out for it too.
Free ATS Pick
The Ducks must score a bunch of points to keep this one close, but Utah is only giving up 23.0 points per game. Oregon will rely on leading rusher Royce Freeman, who has 129 carries for 710 yards and nine touchdowns.
Oregon’s only real path to victory figures to be dominating on the ground, because they don’t have an advantage in any other phase of the game.
The oddsmakers keep giving the Ducks the benefit of the doubt and then they keep getting blown out. This time they will finally cover. Utah is a good team but one that is not prone to running away and hiding from opponents.
Oregon should do enough offensively to keep this one close, although the Utes will make enough plays down the stretch to pull out a win that may have been a little bit more uncomfortable than desired. The “under” is the right call since the teams will run enough to keep the clock moving.
College Football Odds: Utah 38, Oregon 30
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