It’s hard to find two more opposite teams in the same conference than the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. These two steams square off in Week 12 action on Saturday night with Penn State holding out hope for a Big Ten title game appearance and Rutgers just looking forward to the season’s end.
This matchup in Week 12 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at High Point Solutions Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Penn State -28
Rutgers +28
Over/Under 57.5
Odds Analysis
Since opening, the spread is up and the total is down as there’s a significant chance the Nittany Lions blowout the Scarlet Knights, even with this game being playing in New Jersey.
The spread is still a bit low and could continue to climb while the total may be high even with Penn State expected to run up the points as Rutgers will have to move the ball somewhat effectively, too.
For the Knights, it’s been bad—really bad—and has culminated in a 49-0 loss against Michigan State last weekend. That was the third time this year Rutgers has been shutout and the fifth time they’ve scored less fewer than 10.
The loss was also the team’s fourth loss ATS in their last six games. Penn State, on the other hand, is on a nice little run since their overtime win against Minnesota at the beginning of October. Since then, the Nittany Lions are undefeated SU and ATS in five games including wins over Ohio State and the same Iowa team that just knocked off Michigan.
Player to Watch
Offensively, Penn State has been a rather solid all around team with a respectable running game and solid enough passing attack to combine to allow the team to average 35.5 points per game, ranking in the upper echelon in college football.
Given Rutgers’ ability to limit the pass, but absolute futility against the run, the Nittany Lions should see a big game out of Saquon Barkley.
Barkley leads Penn State in carries with 200 and has rushed for 1,113 yards and 13 touchdowns. He’s added 291 yards and a couple scores on short passes, too.
With the Scarlet Knights likely able to control Trace McSorley in the air, it’ll be up to Barkley to carry the offensive load and he’s well equipped to do just that.
Even though he’s coming off a rough outing against Indiana with just 58 yards on 33 carries, he grinded it out and still delivered a couple touchdowns. He’s now scored five touchdowns in his last three games and before the matchup with the Hoosiers, he had rushed for 675 yards in his previous four games.
Barkley’s got history against Rutgers, too. Last year, he rushed for 195 yards and two scores on 21 carries. The Scarlet Knights couldn’t stop him then and won’t be able to stop him on Saturday either.
Exactly how good of a game Barkley has could determine just how much of a blowout this game becomes.
Key Stat
Alongside the strong offensive performances, the Nittany Lion defense has been pretty solid, too.
Penn State ranks fifth in the nation in tackles for a loss. Garrett Sickles has been a big part of that, but it’s truly been a team effort. Better teams than the Scarlet Knights have struggled to get back to the line of scrimmage. We could see a lot of third-and-long situations Saturday.
Rutgers has a terrible offense, but the passing game is even worse than the rushing attack. If the Scarlet Knights are stuffed at—or behind—the line with regularity, we’re going to see a lot of third-and-outs and a distinct field position advantage for Penn State to help them run up the score.
Free ATS Pick
Don’t look for much to go right for the Scarlet Knights. They’ve amongst the worst teams in college football according to most stats and Penn State is still heavily in the hunt for the Big Ten conference title.
Rutgers hasn’t been able to score, they can’t run with the ball, they can’t throw, they’ll be crushed in time of possession with Barkley running all over the field. In general, look for a huge win for the road team as they continue to make waves after a rough 2-2 start.
Penn State is rolling and has rolled through the Buckeyes, the Hawkeyes and the Spartans. They hit a bit of a bump against Indiana last week, but even with little on the ground were able to score 45, win by a pair of touchdowns and cover the spread.
Take the Nittany Lions easily over the Rutgers, happily giving the 28-points.
College Football Odds: Penn State 44, Rutgers 7
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