One of the tougher opponents in the Mountain West, the Wyoming Cowboys will host the west leading San Diego State Aztecs in Week 12 action. The Cowboys are hoping to upset yet another Mountain West elite just as they were able to do against Boise State a few weeks ago.
This contest in Week 12 of the regular season will go down Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Diego State -10
Wyoming +10
Over/Under 59.5
Odds Analysis
Opening as the favorites by a little over a touchdown on the road, the Aztecs have gotten nearly all the betting action early, jumping the spread up to 10-points in their favorite. The spread, meanwhile, has held steady, so far, at 59.5.
San Diego State is playing great football right now, winning six in a row and sitting in position to square off against Boise State for the Mountain West title.
Along with their strong run SU, the Aztecs have covered the spread in four straight games, three of which they were favored by at least 20, double the line currently set for Saturday.
Wyoming should prove to be a worthy opponent given their strong offense, but the defense is lacking and is why they were unable to top UNLV in Week 11. Still, prior to that loss, the Cowboys did win five straight both SU and ATS. They’re 4-1 ATS as underdogs and 3-0 as pups at home, including topping Boise State by two points.
Matchup to Watch
The Aztecs rushed for 474 yards against Nevada in Week 11, running for four touchdowns and getting at least 70 yards from three different backs.
Rashaad Penny led the way with 208 yards, carrying the ball just 10 times, but nabbing a pair of touchdowns. It was his second straight triple-digit performance and his third in his last four games.
The bulk of the touches, however, went to Donnel Pumphrey who had 198 yards of his own on 26 touches for a very respectable 7.6 yards per carry. Pumphrey has been one of the best backs in college football no matter how you slice it. He’s rushed for at least 98 yards in every game and has at least 112 in every game since Week 2.
On top of that Pumphrey has 14 rushing touchdowns and his 198 yards against Nevada was just the fifth most he’s gained in a game this year.
Overall, the San Diego State offense is carried by the running game as the air attack is yielding just 141.6 yards per game, but the running game has 293.9 yards per game, the fifth most in college sports.
On the flip side, Wyoming is not a particularly stout defense. They’re actually better against the run than the pass and rank in the middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed, but they’re allowing 33.7 points per game and just allowed 401 rushing yards to UNLV last weekend.
Along with the yardage, the Rebels also managed to cross into the end zone five times on the ground. It was the rush defense that allowed Wyoming’s five game winning streak to end and it’s likely the difference on Saturday, too.
Player to Watch
On the opposite side of the gridiron from Pumphrey and company is another strong rushing attack led by Brian Hill with 1,417 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Hill is crucial for Wyoming’s chances at an upset as the rush defense won’t be keeping San Diego State off the board.
The junior back is the Cowboy’s offense. Sure Josh Allen throws more than the Aztecs and is a good supplement, but Hill has as many carries as Allen has completions. If you count his catches, Hill is in the lead.
While Pumphrey and Penny can run against a poor rush defense, Hill gets matched with the second best one in the nation, holding opponents to 86.4 yards on the ground though Nevada topped that with a lackluster crop of backs.
Free ATS Pick
The Cowboys are at home and already showed they have the ability to hang with the conferences’ best teams. Ultimately they fall short of an upset, but with a growing spread, don’t be afraid to be contrarian to most and back the Cowboys if the spread grows any further.
The running game is a concern and you can expect the Aztecs to move the ball on the ground effectively against Wyoming, but this is a potent Cowboy offense that’s scored 118 over the last two games and ranks No. 18 in the nation in total scoring with 38.9 points per game.
Overall, the best bet in this one may be the over even with the Aztec’s stout defense.
In the end, look for San Diego State to win by a score, but if the spread stays in the double-digits, take Wyoming to cover. Jonah Field is a tough place to play and the Cowboys have the weapons in Allen and Hill to keep this one close.
College Football Odds: San Diego State 37, Wyoming 30
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