The Texas A&M Aggies have gone from College Football Playoff contender to out of it completely in a matter of two weeks. They have to be disgusted with that turn of events, and may aim to take it out on Texas-San Antonio. The teams will face off in Week 12 of the college football season and Texas A&M will be a gigantic underdog despite the recent struggles.
The Aggies have a large talent advantage against the small-conference foe, as UTSA will be battling to stay close in this one. The Roadrunners do have a lot of points to play with in order to cover the spread, as A&M must step on the pedal quickly in this one.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 12 game is set for Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Kyle Field.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
UTSA +27.5
Texas A&M -27.5
Over/Under 57
Odds Analysis
Texas A&M is a big favorite, but will need to win by four touchdowns or more to get the cover. The Aggies have some believers in the gambling public, as nearly 83 percent of the money is going their way to cover the spread.
Texas A&M scores a ton of points, but the thinking by the oddsmakers is that its defense will do enough to shut down UTSA and keep the scoring total relatively low. The over/under seems pretty accurate as the money is coming in evenly on each side.
Texas A&M is 7-3 on the season and 5-5 against the spread on the season. The Aggies have covered in four of five tries at home.
UTSA is 5-5 on the season but has faced significantly inferior competition compared to Texas A&M. The Roadrunners were beating Arizona State in the fourth quarter before losing, but the Aggies are significantly better. UTSA is 6-4 against the spread and has covered five of seven times as an underdog.
Injury Report
The Aggies have lost star quarterback Trevor Knight for the season due to injury, which hurt them a lot last time out. Texas A&M lost to Ole Miss, 29-28, as an offense which averages 36.3 points per game couldn’t quite muster that much.
Backup quarterback Jake Hubenak finished 16-of-27 for 213 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Texas A&M held a 21-6 lead heading into the fourth quarter of that game but blew it.
Hubenak should have a much easier time against a UTSA defense which will have a really tough time staying with all of the Aggies’ explosive skill athletes.
Key Stat
170.2. That’s the number of rushing yards per game the Roadrunners are giving up. That’s a scary proposition with how well Texas A&M runs the ball.
The Aggies average 223.9 yards per game on the ground and may be able to move the ball on the ground at will in this one. Texas A&M’s leading rusher is Trayveon Williams. He has carried the ball 126 times for 876 yards and six touchdowns.
Williams had 17 carries for 72 yards against Ole Miss and will likely be able to surpass the century mark against UTSA if he gets enough carries.
Free ATS Pick
UTSA has looked decent at times this year. The Roadrunners have lost four of their five games by two touchdowns or fewer and will aim to remain competitive in this one.
If UTSA plays well it may be able to hang around for a little while, but even without its star quarterback, Texas A&M just has way too much talent. The defense and the running game should dominate while Hubenak should be able to put up some nice numbers against a UTSA defense which will be limited athletically.
Take Texas A&M to pull away and cover this large spread.
College Football Odds: Texas A&M 41, UTSA 7
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