The cream of the crop in the Mountain West Conference, the Boise State Broncos, will host the UNLV Rebels on Friday in Week 12. Last year, these two teams met in Las Vegas with the Broncos easily covering a 21-point spread, winning 55-27. Can they do so again against an UNLV team fresh off an upset overtime victory against Wyoming?
This matchup in Week 12 of the regular season will take place on Friday, November 18, 2016, at 9 p.m. ET at Albertsons Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
UNLV +26
Boise State -26
Odds Analysis
The biggest mismatch of the week’s earlier games, the Broncos opened as 27-point favorites at home. Even after some minor early adjustments, the Rebels are still heavy favorites at 26-points.
The Broncos have been an excellent overall team. They’ve lost just a single game all season, though that was to the same Wyoming team that UNLV just beat. Even so, they should be significant favorites at home. The issue, however, is Boise State has had issues living up to the expectations of spread makers and bettors alike.
The Broncos did cover the spread in Week 11, beating Hawaii 52-16. They’ll return home to take on the Rebels, but bring a 3-7 ATS record with them.
As for UNLV, they obviously covered the spread in their upset win, but that was just the third time in their last eight games.
Matchup to Watch
When the Broncos are on the field, the ball flies. They’re ranked No. 15 in passing yards per game and while an average rushing game, they’ve been able to parlay that to one of the top-30 offenses in the sports in both total yardage and points scored.
Brett Rypien is the heart and soul of this offense, though Jeremey McNichols’ 1,369 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground is a nice compliment.
Anyway, Rypien has completed 65-percent of his passes in route to 2,916 yards and 22 touchdowns. His inflated numbers are more about his success than about opportunities, too, given his high completion percentage and just six interceptions.
In week 11, Rypien was nearly perfect. He completed 81.8-percent of his passes for 338 yards and four touchdowns, that coming on the heels of another game with a completion percentage of 76.2 and three touchdowns.
In total, Rypien has thrown at least three scores in four of his last six games. Surprisingly, one of the only teams that was able to contain him was Wyoming.
While the Cowboys have a bad secondary, they were able to perform well against Boise State, but most other teams aren’t as lucky. UNLV should have a hard time themselves. The Rebels have a respectable defensive line, but a porous secondary.
Key Stat
With Boise State a ranked team and UNLV under .500, it may seem weird to think they’re nearly dead even in scoring percentage in the red zone.
The Broncos have only failed to walk away with points in three of their 37 red zone possessions, that’s a .919 rate of scoring. UNLV’s rate is .921, ranking the two Mountain West squads No. 14 and 15 in the nation with the Rebels one spot ahead of the Broncos.
Of course, when we look at actual touchdowns scored instead of field goals, the numbers start to swing back in Boise State’s favor. UNLV has kicked six more field goals than the Broncos.
Boise State holding UNLV to a field goal on red zone possessions will be paramount to their ability to cover a rather lofty spread. Both teams have the offenses to get there, but defensively is where we see a significant separation.
Free ATS Pick
One of two ranked teams in the Mountain West, the Broncos are at home against yet another mediocre mid major team. A win seems like all but a sure thing, but with the spread at 26, can UNLV keep the game close enough to cover? The answer: Probably.
Look, Boise State is the cream of the crop in this conference and they have been the model team and perennial favorite within the Mountain West. They’re still one of the best out of the smaller conferences, but we’ve seen Wyoming beat Boise State and then go on to lose to UNLV.
The Rebels have a real strong offense that can keep the points coming even against a good Broncos’ defense. Boise State wins, but not by more than a couple touchdowns allowing UNLV to cover the spread. After all, the Broncos have covered the spread just three times all year and have lost ATS in all games they were favored by more than 21.5-points.
College Football Odds: Boise State 45, UNLV 28
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