The Notre Dame Fighting Irish looked like their old selves with a dominating win over Army last week and will look to continue the trend heading into Week 12’s showdown against the No. 14 ranked Virginia Tech Hokies. Records paint a misleading picture for this one as we’re looking at a pretty good matchup for the first meeting between these two programs.
This matchup in Week 12 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Notre Dame Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Virginia Tech +0
Notre Dame -0
Over/Under 56
Odds Analysis
Notre Dame were favored early because they were at home and they are Notre Dame. We’ve already seen that spread disappear. Don’t be surprised by additional movement in the favor of a much more fundamentally sound Hokies team.
The Irish have had a rough season. They’re 4-6 SU and ATS, but they did just have a huge win on the road over Army and are looking to bring that momentum back home.
Virginia Tech, meanwhile, lost in Week 11 to Georgia Tech despite being favored by a pair of touchdowns. It was the team’s third straight loss ATS and fourth in their last five games.
Player to Watch
Jerod Evans is the Hokies’ offense. He’s a dual threat quarterback with 2,525 passing yards, a 63.1-percent completion percentage and 22 touchdowns to just four interceptions.
He’s also the team’s leading rusher with 608 rushing yards, averaging 4.6 yards a carry and adding six more scores on the ground.
Evans had a big game in terms of yardage against the Yellow Jackets last Saturday, but ended up being picked off twice as Georgia Tech won the turnover battle four to one and took the game.
It’s Evans against Notre Dame’s defense and the Irish have allowed only 188 rushing yards per game. Interestingly, Evans has been picked off just four times in three different games. Virginia Tech is 1-2 when he allows a pick and 6-1 otherwise.
The Irish are riding high after a 44-6 win over Army and held a couple solid offenses in Navy and Miami under 30-points each prior to that. It’s certainly possible Notre Dame could do the same to Virginia Tech.
The Hokies have seen the offense slow the last two weeks as Evans has been contained in the air.
Look-ahead Situation
Virginia Tech’s loss to Georgia Tech bumped the Hokies out of the top-25 in the AP and coaches polls. The loss also put the ACC Coastal division championship on the line. It’ll now come down to their final game as they play Virginia in Week 13.
With nothing really on the line for the Hokies on Saturday, Notre Dame could be a trap game for Virginia Tech. They’ll be playing a game with little impact on the rankings or conference standings while the Irish desperately need to win their last two games to salvage a bowl game in an otherwise disappointing season.
To top that all off, the Irish are coming off a huge, dominating, and confidence-building win while the Hokies lost to a lesser team and haven’t played particularly strong football for a few weeks with the loss coming on the heels of back-to-back narrow victories against Pittsburgh and Duke. Neither the Panthers nor the Blue Devils are particularly the best of the best in the ACC.
Free ATS Pick
This is not a good Irish team. The defense has been an issue at times and could ultimately lead to the team’s downfall in Week 12. But, the Hokies offense has slowed, too, and the team will have its eyes firmly on Week 13 and could overlook a hungry Notre Dame team.
Offensively, Notre Dame is averaging 31 points per game that’s not a bad number with much of that coming through the air. DeShone Kizer has been a few bright spots for this rebuilding powerhouse. He’s got his work cut out for him against a strong Virginia Tech secondary and pass rush, but could still make something happen.
The Virginia Tech defense is good, but not unbeatable and the Hokies do have a very good offensive line that’s been nearly impenetrable at times. Even so, Notre Dame should be able to control the passing game forcing Virgnia Tech to beat them on the ground.
This should be a good game and the Hokies have the better team according to the numbers, but they’re not playing their best football right now, aren’t focused on the Irish and Notre Dame is motivated. Take the Flying Irish to get the win at home and keep their bowl hopes alive for another week.
College Football Odds: Notre Dame 30, Virginia Tech 27
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