In a bit of a David versus Goliath showdown, the Purdue Boilermakers will host the Wisconsin Badgers in Week 12 action with the Badgers neck-and-neck with Nebraska atop to West division of the Big Ten standings while Purdue is pulling up the rear. Record wise, the only thing the Boilermakers have going for them in the Big Ten is at least they’re not Rutgers.
Watch this regular season Week 12 matchup live on Saturday, November 19, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Ross-Ade Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Wisconsin -28
Purdue +28
Odds Analysis
The Boilermakers opened has huge underdogs and the spread has just grown from there, now up from 27 to 28-points.
Purdue has been better ATS than SU, but that really doesn’t take much. The Boilermakers are still 4-6 ATS though they have dropped back-to-back games against the spread since Week 2. They lost big to Northwestern in Week 11.
On the other side, Wisconsin has won handily against most opponents outside of Ohio State and Michigan though they’ve only played one game with a bigger spread than they currently have over Purdue and failed to cover. That said, they did beat the next worst team in the division, Illinois, in Week 11 by 45.
Matchup to Watch
The Badgers rushing attack torched the Fighting Illini last week for 363 yards and four touchdowns as Corey Clement rushed for 123 yards and three scores.
Alex Hornibrook did just enough throwing the ball to set up the run which is exactly what Wisconsin is looking for from him.
Wisconsin is a run oriented team and that matches up well for them against Purdue whose rush defense is even worse than Illinois’, giving up 248.9 rushing yards per game.
There’s no doubt that Clement is in for another strong game. He’s having a very good senior campaign, but he’s not alone as the Badgers can also use Dare Ogunbowale in an effort to keep Clement fresh. Ogunbowale had 103 yards rushing against the Illini.
Purdue’s defense has a number of injuries and that showed in the game against Northwestern as the Wildcats broke out for 45 points a week after scoring just seven. Even as a much stronger passing team, the Wildcats ended up with two players each reaching over 100 yards rushing.
With Wisconsin’s defense easily able to shut down a low scoring Purdue offense, this is a very bad matchup for the Boilermakers.
The Badgers are a top ten defense by any metric you use to measure and are coming off a four interception game. They have 14 interceptions and 18 turnovers gained on the year. Purdue is a pass heavy team and David Blough already has thrown 16 interceptions with the team throwing a combined 20. That’s another terrible matchup for Purdue as the Boilermakers struggled to hang on to the ball and the Wisconsin secondary is full of playmakers looking for that big pick.
Letdown Spot
Honestly, the only threat in this game is the fact that Purdue is playing its last home game of the season and we’ll see the seniors step up in a big way in what will be their last hurrah at Ross-Ade Stadium. On top of that, this is a cake matchup for Wisconsin while a more formidable opponent in Minnesota is on deck to close out the year.
Wisconsin wins this game going away. Purdue is just not a good football team, the Badger running game matches up perfectly with a horrendous Boilermaker rush defense and a flailing Purdue offense against one of the nation’s elite defenses all spell doom and gloom for the home team.
With all that, the large spread makes sense, but it’s hard to lay that much chalk against a home team with something to play for and Purdue did cover the spread against Nebraska, Wisconsin’s foe atop the West.
Free ATS Pick
Four touchdowns is a huge spread, particularly on the road, but the Boilermakers have been vastly over matched by weaker teams than Wisconsin. For instance, the same 28-points separated the Boilermakers and Northwestern last weekend.
The spread makes sense and the Badgers will win by a wide margin, but be particularly careful if the spread grows much larger.
In the end, I look for Clement to have a huge game as he, Ogunbowale and even Bradrick Shaw run wild against Purdue. A repeat of last week’s win against Illinois is very likely. They dominated time of possession in the game, more than doubled up the Illini in first downs and stifled Illinois’ offense at every chance with four interceptions.
Clement runs. Blough gives up a couple picks. Wisconsin wins on the road in yet another blowout. Take the road team.
College Football Odds: Wisconsin 35, Purdue 6
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