The Alabama Crimson Tide will try for its third straight win in the Iron Bowl Saturday against its arch rival, the Auburn Tigers in Week 12, as the No. 1 team in the nation looks to finish the season off undefeated on its way to another College Football Playoff appearance.
Alabama has lived up to its lofty ranking all season and the defending national champion has won 23 games in a row and is 11-0 heading into this Week 13 contest. No. 15 Auburn is 8-3 this season and got back in the winning column last week with a 55-0 win over Alabama A&M. While a showdown of two ranked teams would usually be competitive, the Crimson Tide has been so good this year that they are a heavy favorite.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Auburn +17
Alabama -17
Over/Under 47.5
Odds Analysis
Alabama has been a big favorite in a ton of games this season and continues to regularly cover. The Crimson Tide are expected to win via blowout in this one but more than 57 percent of the action is coming in on the underdog Tigers to cover the spread. The scoring total is low because both teams have elite defenses and the “under” has taken in the majority of the action.
Alabama is 8-3 against the spread, including eight wins in 10 tries as the favorite. The Crimson Tide is 5-1 against the spread at home.
Auburn is 8-3 straight up and also 8-3 against the spread. The Tigers have covered all three times as the underdog this season.
Player to Watch
Jalen Hurts – The Alabama freshman quarterback has played in some big games this season, but nothing like the Iron Bowl. Home field advantage will be key for Hurts in this one, but nerves and emotion could certainly affect the outcome.
In some ways, it’s a good thing as the high pressure of this always-highly-anticipated matchup will help prepare the young player for the postseason. Hurts has thrown for 2,168 yards with 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions so far this season.
Last week in the win against Chattanooga, he threw for 136 yards and three touchdowns. He had a career performance against Mississippi State on November 12th, completing 28-of-37 passes for 347 yards with four touchdowns and one interception.
Key Stat
11.4. That’s how many points Alabama’s opponents are averaging against this tough defense. The team captured its second shutout of the season a few weeks ago, against No. 13 LSU no less, and has held the last three opponents it has faced to just six points combined.
Alabama ranks No. 2 in the nation for total defense and is holding opponents to 252.6 total yards a game right now. The Tigers come into this game averaging 34.1 points a game and rely heavily on their running game, but face a very big challenge this week in Alabama.
The signature strength and size of Nick Saban’s defensive unit remains this season and this season his defensive line appears more athletic and fast too as demonstrated in Alabama’s 33-14 win over Texas A&M on October 22nd. The Alabama defense sacked stud quarterback Trevor Knight five times in that contest and forced two turnovers including a fumble recovery for a touchdown.
Free ATS Pick
While Alabama’s defense gets the headlines, Auburn’s has been stingy as well, allowing only 14.3 points per game. The offense has been the problem in the team’s losses.
Alabama defeated Auburn 29-13 last season on the road to win its second straight Iron Bowl title. The Crimson Tide ended 2015 as the national champions and hope to go down a similar path.
Alabama has been absolutely dominating teams this year, but Auburn is one of the best teams they will face. The Tigers should be able to hang in this one, and while the Crimson Tide will win, take Auburn to cover the spread and the “under” on the total.
College Football Odds: Alabama 24, Auburn 20
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