The Boise State Broncos are used to winning the Mountain West, but will need some help as the season wraps up in Week 13. They need to take care of business on the road against Air Force and then hope Wyoming loses in order to capture the Mountain division.
The Broncos must focus on their own game because a loss means they will be out of running. Boise State is nationally ranked and a sizable favorite, but this spread is close enough that Air Force isn’t a pushover. The Falcons would love to play spoiler and win this one at home, but it won’t be easy.
This matchup in Week 13 of the regular season will take place on Friday, November 25, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Falcon Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Boise State -9.5
Air Force +9.5
Odds Analysis
Boise State is nearly a double-digit favorite but the gamblers aren’t totally buying in. Air Force is currently taking in more than 71 percent of the money to cover the spread.
The Falcons are 8-3 straight up and just 3-8 against the spread this season. Air Force has played six games at home this year but has underperformed expectations with only one cover in that span.
Boise State is 10-1 overall and has won six of seven games to be tied for first in the Mountain West, although Wyoming has the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Broncos are 3-7-1 against the spread on the season but have actually done really well on the road, covering three times and pushing once in five games.
Player to Watch
Brett Rypien -- Boise State has the best quarterback in the game, which could be a big help. Rypien has completed 203-of-317 passes for 3,025 yards with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Rypien has helped lead an offense which is averaging 37.0 points per game on the season. He wasn’t needed much last week as Jeremy McNichols did the damage on the ground, but Air Force can be susceptible to the pass which may allow Rypien to shine.
He has thrown for three touchdowns or more in four of the past seven games and doing that again would set up the team very well for victory.
Key Stat
323.5. That’s how many rushing yards Air Force is averaging per game right now behind a balanced backfield. The team ranks No. 3 in the nation for rushing yards per game.
Jacobi Owens leads the team in rushing yards. He has 113 carries for 737 yards and three touchdowns. D.J. Johnson and Timothy McVey combine for another 1,150 yards.
McVey also leads the team with 10 touchdowns. Arion Worthman is coming off a monster game a couple weeks ago against San Jose State, racking up 215 yards on 28 carries, and he is another key player.
Air Force has long been known for its rushing attack and that’s what Boise State will need to slow down in order to keep the Falcons from pulling off the upset.
Free ATS Pick
Boise State is nationally ranked and holding out hope Wyoming will lose its finale. Many expect the Broncos to cruise in this one, but hold up on that.
Air Force has a solid record and has won three straight after a pair of close conference losses. The Falcons don’t have the same type of personnel that Boise State does, but its defense does a nice job against the run.
If it can pick off Rypien once or twice, this one could stay close. The Falcons need to get their rushing game going, but that’s possible since Boise State allowed 167 yards per game on the ground.
Most people are chalking this up as a win for Boise State, but look harder, and you’ll see real upset potential with Air Force at home. Take the Falcons in a stunner and it will pay off handsomely.
College Football Odds: Air Force 37, Boise State 34
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