Kickoff for this college football Week 13 game is set for Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 9 p.m. ET at Qualcomm Stadium. This game will be broadcast on CBSS.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Colorado State +11.5
San Diego State -11.5
Over/Under 55.5
Odds Analysis
The Rams are 9-2 ATS this season and have covered six straight heading into this one. This has been one of the best teams for bettors this year and they have only gotten better under another year of HC Mike Bobo.
San Diego State suffered a surprising loss last week against Wyoming, but had covered four straight conference games prior to that. The Aztecs have been favored in every game this season and will likely be favored once again in the MWC Title Game next week.
Matchup to Watch
Donnel Pumphrey had run wild all season until last week against Wyoming. Pumphrey, who had been the nation’s leading rusher heading into the game, had run for 100 yards in 10 straight games heading into the match-up against the Cowboys. However, Wyoming did a fantastic job of containing him, holding Pumphrey to just 76 yards on the night.
It will be much tougher for Colorado State to contain him. The Rams are giving up an average of 4.85 yards per carry to opponents this season and run-first teams have killed this defense. In the past two weeks, Colorado State has given up 485 yards on the ground to Air Force and 285 yards on the ground to New Mexico. Pumphrey himself averaged 6 yards a carry against this defense last year and should have another big day.
Player to Watch
Nick Stevens started the season as Colorado State’s quarterback, but after an awful performance against Colorado, he was relegated to third-string and sat the next four games. However, after Collin Hill went down with an injury, Stevens was called upon once again and has performed fabulously since his return.
Over the past five games, he is completing 72 percent of his passes and has 10 touchdowns while only throwing one interception. He has provided the Rams with stability in a crucial time and that has been a huge boost to a Colorado State team that was still sputtering. Stevens will have his hands full against San Diego State this week, as the Aztecs secondary has 20 interceptions this year, most in the nation.
Free ATS Pick
Colorado State has one of the conference’s best receiving threats in Michael Gallup, who Bobo was able to lure to Fort Collins through his time at Georgia. Gallup has been a rock at wide receiver this season for both Hill and Stevens and has upped his output as the season has progressed. He has tallied at least 91 yards receiving and a touchdown in six straight games and has been a difficult match-up for Mountain West corners.
Although Gallup and the Rams have looked very much improved over the last month or so, this is going to be a match-up nightmare for them. San Diego State has the corners to be able to play solid man on Colorado State’s receivers and force the Rams to be one-dimensional. When the defense is on the field, they will be hard-pressed to stop Pumphrey and he could go off for 200 yards. Back the Aztecs in a big way.
College Football Odds: Aztecs 41, Rams 21
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