The Miami Hurricanes have gone through an up and down season in 2016, but it is projected to end on a high note. Miami is a heavy favorite in Week 13 of the college football season when they host the Duke Blue Devils.
Miami has shrugged off some midseason stumbles to win three straight a strong defense should be the difference in this one. The Hurricanes shouldn’t have much trouble winning, but the question will be whether or not they can cover the spread.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Duke +15.5
Miami -15.5
Over/Under 50.5
Odds Analysis
Miami is a significant favorite but the betting public thinks the number is too high, as Duke is garnering more than 82 percent of the action to cover the spread.
The scoring total is pretty low because of Miami’s aforementioned defense, but the gamblers deem it too low as most of the money has taken the “over” in this one.
The Hurricanes are 7-4 straight up and 6-5 against the spread. Miami has excelled as the favorite this season, covering the spread in six of eight times.
Duke is 4-7 straight up and 7-4 against the spread. While Miami has done well as the favorite, the Blue Devils have similarly excelled as the underdog, covering five times in seven attempts, so this should be a good matchup.
Look-Ahead Situation
If Duke wants to play in a bowl game, the Blue Devils need to pull of the upset in Miami to simply have a chance. Despite its losing record, the team still has a chance at a bowl game because of the program’s high performance in the classroom.
The NCAA compares the academic progress rate or APR of all teams with five wins or more to determine bowl eligibility in the event there are not enough programs with six wins or more to fill bowl game spots. Duke leads that list currently and could earn a bowl game berth with just five wins.
The chance at a bowl game should serve as a big motivator for the Blue Devils who are fresh off a 56-14 loss to Pittsburgh. The team has made a bowl game the last three years in a row.
Player to Watch
Mark Walton – The Miami running back has run for 356 yards and four touchdowns in the last three games. He leads the team in rushing the season with 1,005 yards and 14 touchdowns this season.
Walton will present a big test for the Duke defense this week and stopping the run will be key if the Blue Devils want a chance at an upset, and in turn a bowl game. Duke is allowing 175.2 rushing yards a game this season.
Free ATS Pick
Miami’s biggest advantage will be defensively. The Hurricanes are only giving up 18.7 points per game this year, which is one of the best marks nationally. Duke is no offensive juggernaut with an average of only 23.5 points per contest, and it seems like it will be extremely tough to get anything going.
Duke would love to pull the upset and reach a bowl game, but this seems too tough a task. The Blue Devils have been humbled in conference play and there’s no reason to think that will change.
Miami is the clearly superior team and this one won’t be close. Take the Hurricanes to dominate in several areas and come away with the blowout win.
College Football Odds: Miami 30, Duke 13
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