The stakes are always high when the Florida Gators and Florida State Seminoles matchup. We’re set for another great showdown in Week 13 between these two in-state rivals. Sure, the Gators’ offense is still lacking, but we saw the defense come through big last week against LSU.
This contest in Week 13 of the regular season will go down Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida +6.5
Florida State -6.5
Over/Under 45
Odds Analysis
Don’t overlook the Gators in this game. Florida opened as seven point pups, but that’s dropped down to 6.5-points which could still be a bit high for a team coming off a big emotional win against Louisiana State.
The Gators’ lack of offense and stout defense will lead to a low scoring affair, but will the defense be enough against the Seminoles?
Florida State will enter action with three straight wins and five wins in their last six games. They’ve covered the spread in back-to-back games and five of their last eight.
The Gators, on the other hand, covered the spread for the first time in three games in Week 12 and are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five outings.
Matchup to Watch
This is a battle of elite offense against stellar defense with Florida State looking to try and do what LSU couldn’t: break through against the Gators’ defense in key situations.
Florida’s defense is ranked third in scoring, allowing 13 points per game and fourth in yards allowed, giving up 282.4 per game.
The Gators are a bit better against the pass thanks to a stacked secondary, but the defensive line is none too shabby either, holding the opposing running games to 122.4 yards on average.
The matchup of the defense against the Seminoles’ Dalvin Cook will be crucial. Cook just destroyed Syracuse, rushing 28 times for 225 yards and four touchdowns. He’s now racked up 18 combined scores and 1,467 rushing yards with 400 additional yards in the short passing game.
He’s rushed for triple-digits in seven of his last eight games and has done some special things against good rush defenses, but he’ll need help to have success against the Gators. FSU needs Deondre Francois to have a solid game, too, opening up running lanes for Cook.
If Florida can contain Cook, that could go a long ways towards an upset. Essentially, if this game ends up below the total, the Gators have a good chance of winning, if it’s above, it is Florida State’s game.
Last Meeting
The Seminoles are hoping for a repeat of what happened in this matchup last year: FSU got enough offense against Florida thanks to a huge game from Cook and were able to completely shut down a sputtering Gator offense. In fact, Florida’s only points came on a safety.
The Seminoles offense is at least as good this time around. With Francois under center they’re better equipped there than they were a season ago with the steady, but uninspiring Sean Maguire.
Interestingly, despite the commanding win, Florida controlled the clock, had four more first downs and a superior conversion rate on third downs. The Seminoles were just 2-for-13 on third downs, but did convert both times they went for it on fourth down.
Neither offense was overly efficient in this game, but the real difference was FSU got the job done, winning the field position battle and ultimately ending up the end zone. Florida was stopped short.
Free ATS Pick
Florida needs to find a quarterback that can, well, throw the ball consistently and provide some support for the running attack, but they’ve lived for quite a long time without a legitimate answer at the most important position on the field.
It’s the defense that’s allowed the Gators to nab the top spot in the SEC East despite the shortcomings under center and it’s the defense that’ll keep this one close. It’s as simple as that. If the defense performance and Jordan Scarlett can move the ball efficiently, the Gators win. If either struggle, FSU should capture the win at home.
The good news for the visiting team is that Scarlett had a nice game against LSU on the ground last week and can provide enough offense to get the job done again on Saturday provided the defense dominants.
Ultimately, this game is a tossup. I’m not convinced the Gators can win with their meager offense, but they surprised against LSU last week so don’t put it past them. I’ve got the Gators winning straight up, building on the momentum from their divisional title, but I’m not confident they can be victorious on the road. Given that you get nearly a touchdown in points on the Gator’s side of this matchup, you can take Florida and the points.
College Football Odds: Florida 20, Florida State 16
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