The Georgia Bulldogs topped the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets last season in a meaningful rematch after the Yellow Jackets grabbed the win against the SEC giant with 399 rushing yards a year prior. The Bulldogs have dominated this matchup, but the road team has won the last three meetings. The Yellow Jackets will look to make it four straight for the road team when these two instate rivals square off in Week 13.
This matchup in Week 13 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Sanford Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Georgia Tech +4
Georgia -4
Odds Analysis
The spread has drop half a point since opening. The Bulldogs remain favored at home, but their loss against the Yellow Jackets a couple seasons ago coupled with Georgia Tech’s strong rushing attack that’s been rolling over their last six games, bettors have been a bit nervous; and rightfully so.
The Yellow Jackets captured a strong win over Virginia last week, giving them a 4-1 record in their last five games. Georgia Tech is also 4-2 ATS in its last six.
After losses to Vanderbilt and Florida a few weeks ago, the Bulldog have rebounded with wins over Kentucky, Auburn and Illinois, though the win over the Fighting Illini was much closer than it should have been.
After topping UNC in the season opener, the Bulldogs have been a mediocre team, going 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS.
The road team has dominated the spread in this head-to-head battle, covering in 14 of the last 17 meetings.
Player to Watch
Well, it’s not really player to watch as much as it’s players to watch. Obviously, this offense is all about the run with just nine touchdowns and 1,450 yards through the air all season.
The triple threat of Dedrick Mills, Marcus Marshall and Justin Thomas all bringing different looks on the ground rank this rushing attack No. 10 in the nation.
Mills is the ring leader near the goal line with 10 rushing scores. He’s also tops in total yards at 578. That yardage is right in line with the other two as Marshall and Thomas sit at 569 and 552 yards, respectively. They’ve also combined for eight touchdowns.
Georgia’s defense should at least provide a challenge for the Yellow Jackets though they’re better against the pass. Even so, they’re only giving up 133.4 yards per game on the ground. Two weeks ago, they held a strong Auburn rushing attack to just 127 yards. The Tigers recorded just 10 first downs in that game, converting on just 2-of-12 third down chances and managing just a single touchdown, losing 13-7.
Auburn has actually outrushed the Yellow Jackets, but the Bulldogs didn’t have to contend with Kamryn Pettway so Georgia Tech will be a bigger test for this strong defensive front.
Key Stat
Georgia is one of the better teams in terms of turnover margin, sitting at +7. The Bulldogs, however, have been particularly good at forcing turnovers from the opposition with 14 interceptions and nine fumble recoveries.
Georgia Tech, on the other side, doesn’t give up the ball too often, particularly through the air. Of course, the Bulldogs don’t give up the ball too often either with just three more turnovers than their counterparts in Saturday’s showdown.
The Yellow Jackets also don’t typically draw many penalties: offensively, defensively or on special teams. They’re fifth in penalty yards per game at just 34.82, drawing only 45 penalties. That’s better than Georgia who in their own right are a smart and disciplined team.
Free ATS Pick
Georgia is certainly a more balanced team on offense, but lacks the knockout punch on the ground or in the air and thus are scoring just 23.7 points per game compared to the Yellow Jacket’s 27.8 points per game.
Don’t look for the Bulldogs to run away with the win, though—speaking of the run—Nick Chubb could be in line for a very good performance. Even so, Georgia isn’t a team to blow out the opposition and the Yellow Jackets will get their yards on the ground.
The Bulldogs likely snap the road game streak in this matchup, but this game is way too close to be comfortable expecting either team to walk away with the victory.
Look for a tight battle between these in-state foes and with more than field goal on one side, take the Yellow Jackets and the points to cover.
College Football Odds: Georgia 23, Georgia Tech 20
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