Losses to Navy and Southern Methodist have sunk the Houston Cougars to second in the AAC West standings. They’ll look to improve their standing in conference with a Week 13 victory over the Memphis Tigers. Houston has won each of the last six contests between these two programs.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Friday, November 25, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Liberty Bowl Memorial.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
Memphis captured a big 34-7 win at Cincinnati last weekend, capturing just their second victory in their last five games.
Against the spread, the Tigers win in Week 12 was just their second in their last eight matchups.
On the other side of the gridiron, the Cougars have fared better in conference than Memphis, losing just two games, but they’ve been nearly as inept ATS, dropping five straight before upsetting Louisville last weekend.
The win over the Cardinals is a huge one as Louisville was well positioned for a college football playoff bid. Houston, however, delivered on both sides of the ball for a 36-10 victory.
Matchup to Watch
The Tigers possess a strong offense, scoring 38.7 points per game and averaging 453.4 yards per game, propped up by a very strong passing attack and a more than adequate run game.
Defensively, Memphis bends, but rarely breaks as they’re below average in yards allowed, but above average with just 25.5 points allowed per game. All in all, if the Tigers are to get the upset—or even keep it close—it’s going to come on the strength of the team’s offense, but given Riley Ferguson’s injury in the Cincinnati game, that’s quite the question mark.
Ferguson’s health is crucial to this matchup. The QB has completed 63.4 percent of his passes for 2,914 yards and 24 touchdowns with just nine interceptions. If he’s unable to go, the ball lands in the hands of Jason Stewart who has just 27 pass attempts this season. He has been good in the limited action, but he’s largely unproven against top level oppositions.
On the other side of the field, Houston has an absolutely elite defensive line that stuffs the opposing running game in their tracks, allowing just 93.5 yards per game on the ground, the second fewest in all of college football.
The secondary, on the other hand, is beatable. They’re still above average against the pass, but there are holes that a good passing game can beat from time-to-time. If Ferguson is a go, the Tigers could be one of those team. If he’s not, it could be a very tough day for the home town team.
Key Stat
Third downs have been good to the Cougars. Houston ranks No. 17 with a third down conversion percentage of .472.
Last week, Houston converted just 5-of-17 third down chances, that’s just 29-percent. Louisville, however, is one of the best third down defenses, the Cardinals rank fifth in the nation in that category, allowing the opposition to covert just 28-percent of the time. Well in line with what the Cougars produced last week.
Houston will have another tough third down defense in Memphis. The Tigers are ranked No. 31 in third down conversions allowed, but the Cougars already showed last week that they can keep the offense rolling against better teams than the Tigers, even if they struggle on third downs.
Free ATS Pick
Based on the availability of Ferguson, this one could go many different ways, but each has Houston winning and each likely results in the Cougars covering the spread as the odds makers will compensate for the status on the Memphis QB.
Look for Greg Ward Jr. and Duke Catalon to do enough on the ground to help move the ball and the chains when needed, but count on Ward’s arm to carry this team to victory. He’s completing 67.1-percent of his pass attempts on the year.
Ward has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games and has seven multi-passing touchdown games this year. On the flip side, he has only thrown interceptions in four games.
Overall, look for plenty of offense from the Cougars against Memphis’s defense while the Houston defense is strong enough to at least slow a very strong Tigers offense and may flat out stop them if Ferguson is out or hindered.
Take the Cougars to cover on Friday.
College Football Odds: Houston 32, Memphis 20
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