A blowout loss at the hands of Houston has put a damper on an otherwise great season for the Louisville Cardinals. They’ll look for a rebound victory to close out the 2016 regular season as they play host the lackluster Kentucky Wildcats in Week 13 action on Saturday afternoon.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 13 game is set for Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kentucky +26
Louisville -26
Over/Under 74.5
Odds Analysis
Bettors and odds makers alike are expecting a blow out and we’ve seen that in the early action as the spread opened at 23.5 and has grown quickly from there.
The Cardinals are 9-2 this season, but have struggled to cover some lofty spreads. They’ve been favored by at least 17-points in each of their last six games, but have covered just two of them.
The Wildcats, meanwhile, have lost two of their last three games, falling to Georgia and Tennessee, but have been the better team ATS, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, including covered the spread in three of the last four games in which they were the underdogs.
Matchup to Watch
The Wildcats’ only hope to keep this game reasonably close is their ability to move the ball on the ground.
Their defense is below average in both yards allowed and points allowed, giving up over 30 points per game. The passing attack has been even more pedestrian amassing a meager 172 passing yards per game.
Meanwhile, the ground game has been very good, racking up 245.5 yards per game and leading to an offense that has been average despite no passing game.
The Cardinals will look to stop Boom Williams and Benjamin Snell in their tracks. The two runners have each touched the ball at least 146 times, amassing over six yards a carry and combining for 18 scores.
Louisville’s defense is ranked sixth in the nation against the run, allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game. Overall, their seventh in fewest yards allowed and No. 24 in points allowed, surrendering 21.7 per contest.
Look for the Cards to force Stephen Johnson to throw the ball. If that’s the case, the Kentucky offense could sputter. Johnson has 1,524 yards passing and a 9:5 touchdown to interception ratio.
On the flip side, the Cardinals offense is first in yards and first in points per game this season even after the offense sputtered against Houston. Louisville was unable to protect Lamar Jackson. Kentucky’s defense isn’t good enough to replicate Houston’s success.
Letdown Spot
The loss to Houston last week knocked the Cardinals out of the College Football Playoff picture and with that much of the motivation for this team has gone.
Nevertheless, there’s still plenty for the Cards to play for as Lamar Jackson is still very much in the Heisman hunt and they’re still in line for a great bowl game.
Despite all of that, the loss to the Cougars is still a major blow and it’s hard to know just how this Louisville team will respond, particularly with a win against Kentucky all by certain. That uncertainty looms large with such a big spread. This team could come out motivated to make a statement or deflated.
On the flip side, the Wildcats will be pumped and likely play up to the competition; at least as much as a team like Kentucky can. The Wildcats had an epic second half collapse against Louisville
Free ATS Pick
Look for Kentucky to play Louisville tough for a couple quarters, but ultimately fall as Jackson carves up a bad Wildcat defense. The line gave out on Jackson in Houston. He’ll have better protection versus Kentucky.
Bank on a huge performance from the Heisman hopeful as he proves last week was a fluke. He’s already got 47 combined touchdowns. He’ll get a few more to close out the regular season.
With Louisville the top offense in the sport and one of the better defense, there should be a margin of a few touchdowns, but 26-points is still a lot to give in a game where the top team is coming off a poor showing and has fallen out of National Championship contention.
Kentucky has done better ATS and hasn’t lost to the Cardinals by more than 26 since 2006. Take the underdog to keep the game close enough before Jackson runs away with the SU victory.
College Football Odds: Louisville 42, Kentucky 20
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