It’s been a rough time for the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors since joining the Mountain West, but for the first time in their five-year history in the conference, they may be going bowling. With a win over the Massachusetts Minutemen in Week 13 college football, Hawaii will break a six-year long bowl drought and play in the Hawaii Bowl. Even with a loss, Nick Rolovich has already posted a better season than any of Norm Chow’s four seasons in Honolulu.
Kickoff for this college football Week 13 game is set for Saturday, November 26, 2016, at 11 p.m. ET at Hawaiian Airlines Field at Aloha Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Massachusetts +7.5
Hawaii -7.5
Over/Under 61
Odds Analysis
UMass has been blown out often this season, but the Minutemen have performed better than expected in recent weeks. They are 3-1 ATS over their past four games and came close to defeating South Carolina just a month ago.
For Hawaii, it’s been a different story. The Rainbow Warriors started off hot with an offense that was averaging over 30 PPG through the first eight games of the season. Since then though, the offense has sputtered, putting averaging just 12.8 PPG over its last four and failing to cover in each game.
Key Stat
If there’s one place the Minutemen can have success, it’s on the ground. Hawaii is giving up an appalling 254.3 YPG on the ground this year and opposing rushers are picking up 5.4 yards a carry. The Rainbow Warriors’ inability to stop the run has meant that teams have just kept pounding against them and Hawaii is seeing opponents run the ball 47 times a game.
For Massachusetts to win, it will need to be able to exploit this advantage. The Minutemen have been awful on the ground, picking up an abysmal 3.24 yards an attempt, but haven’t faced many front sevens as porous as this one. Marquis Young is the team’s leading rusher and had solid performances against SEC defenses, running for a combined 307 yards on Florida, Mississippi State, and South Carolina this season. Young must have a big game.
Player to Watch
When Rolovich made the decision to make Dru Brown his quarterback, the move paid immediate dividends. Brown looked poised in leading the team to conference wins over Nevada, San Jose State, and Air Force, but things have fallen apart since that time.
Over his last four games, Brown has cracked the 175-yard passing mark once, and has thrown four interceptions compared to just one score. With numbers like that it’s no wonder why Hawaii has seemingly hit a brick wall as of late. Granted two of those performances were against the conference’s best defenses, San Diego State and Boise State, but the other two were against New Mexico and Fresno State and he still had issues.
Free ATS Pick
There’s no doubt that Hawaii has improved under Rolovich’s direction, but it still has a long way to go. The defense still needs a ton of work for this team to contend for a MWC title and Brown needs a lot of tutoring in the offseason.
Hawaii has been one of the worst teams at getting off the field on third-down, allowing opponents to convert over 50 percent of their third-down chances. The Rainbow Warriors should put up better numbers against the Minutemen, but if they keep having these issues it might cost them.
The Minutemen have been a surprisingly game team this season despite not having much talent. This team comes to play every week and if Hawaii isn’t careful UMass could make sure it doesn’t go to a bowl game. With this much on the line though and UMass likely enjoying the island a little too much before the last game of the season, expect Hawaii to get the cover.
College Football Odds: Rainbow Warriors 31, Minutemen 20
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